Downstream restocking and cargo pick-up, market supply decreases [SMM North China Spot Copper]

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, SHFE copper prices are expected to rise intraday and remain at a relatively high level. Coupled with the futures contract rollover, trading activity is likely to be muted, reflecting that the current price level is significantly suppressing real demand. After the rollover, the market will officially price around the 2607 contract, and close attention should be paid to the outflow of unmatched warrants. However, open interest for the SHFE copper 2606 contract currently stands at approximately 5,500 lots, indicating limited delivery participation. The concentrated release of warrants is therefore expected to exert relatively limited additional pressure on spot discounts. Supported by delivery-related dynamics, Shanghai spot copper discounts did not see a sharp decline. But if copper prices remain at current highs and demand fails to improve effectively, spot premiums may come under downward pressure.

Lobito Atlantic Railway (LAR) has resumed operations on a key section of its rail corridor and received its first copper shipment from the Democratic Republic of Congo since repairing flood-damaged infrastructure. The rail link between the Port of Lobito and Huambo had been disrupted for approximately two months due to severe flooding. During the outage, LAR maintained cargo movements through a contingency plan involving rail and truck transfers. The Lobito Corridor is a major export route for copper and cobalt from the DRC to the Atlantic coast, and the restoration of rail traffic is expected to improve logistics efficiency for critical minerals exports from Central Africa.