Gold, silver and oil all fell, most base metals declined, LME aluminum and LME nickel dropped over 2%, and COMEX and SHFE silver tumbled over 4% [Overnight Market]

SMM News, June 10:

Metals market:

Overnight, base metals in the domestic market generally fell. SHFE copper dropped 0.34%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.67%, and SHFE lead was down 0.4%. SHFE zinc rose 0.14%. SHFE tin declined 1.1%. SHFE nickel lost 1.34%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract rose 0.68%, and foundry aluminum futures' most active contract was flat at 22,995 yuan/mt.

Overnight, ferrous metals showed mixed performance, with iron ore up 0.26%, HRC flat at 3,360 yuan/mt, stainless steel down 0.69%, and rebar up 0.19%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal futures contract fell 0.58%, and the most-traded coke futures contract rose 0.38%.

Overnight in the overseas market, LME base metals mostly fell. LME copper dipped 0.23%. LME aluminum dropped 2.08%, and LME lead was down 0.38%. LME zinc gained 0.33%. LME tin edged up 0.16%. LME nickel tumbled 2.2%.

Overnight precious metals : Overnight, COMEX gold fell 1.8%, and COMEX silver plunged 4.56%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract lost 1.51%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract slumped 4.06%.

Closing prices as of 7:19 am on June 10:

Macro front

China:

[Guangdong: Build over 3 million charging facilities province-wide by the end of 2027 to meet the charging demand of more than 8 million NEVs] The Guangdong Provincial Development and Reform Commission and other departments recently issued the "Guangdong Province High-Quality Development Action Plan for EV Charging Facilities." The plan proposes building a high-quality charging facility system with ultra-fast, fast, and slow charging complementing each other through continuous innovation in application scenarios, improvement of charging networks, enhancement of charging efficiency, optimization of service quality, and innovation in the industrial ecosystem. It aims to promote the balanced development of charging facilities between the eastern, western, and northern regions of Guangdong and the Pearl River Delta area, and to encourage wider adoption and use of EVs. By the end of 2027, the province aims to have built over 3 million charging facilities, meeting the charging demand of more than 8 million NEVs, and to have ultra-fast charging stations in every county, with the number of such stations being no less than the number of gas stations. (Jin10 Data APP)

[CPCA: China's retail sales of domestic narrow passenger vehicles reached 1.51 million units in May 2026] According to the latest retail sales data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), retail sales of domestic narrow passenger vehicles in China reached 1.51 million units in May 2026, down 22.1% YoY and up 9.2% MoM. Cumulative sales for January-May reached 7.099 million units, down 19.5% YoY.

US dollar:

The overnight US dollar index fell 0.07% to 99.95. Data: US ADP employment weekly change for the week ending May 23 was 29,000, compared to 35,750 previously. Jay Woods, Chief Global Strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, stated that the overall US CPI annual rate for May is expected to jump to 4.2% from 3.8%, which would be the highest level since March 2023. However, he noted the real concern is not the headline data but "sticky" items that could become entrenched, such as housing, insurance, and services. These categories could keep inflation persistently above the US Fed's comfort zone, as they may remain elevated for longer. Woods said high inflation driven by gasoline is usually less worrisome, while sustained price increases in housing and services could be a trend that takes time to reverse. According to the CME "FedWatch" tool, the probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged in June is 98.2%, with a 1.8% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut. For July, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 85.8%, with a 12.6% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike and a 1.6% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut. (Jin10 Data APP)

China Securities pointed out that in the short term, the probability of a US Fed rate hike remains low, and market concerns about US Fed tightening are mainly at the expectations level, predicated on persistent domestic inflation and a continuously hot job market in the US. Data from CME FedWatch indicates that the market expectations for a likely Fed rate hike outside China begin at the end of October 2026. The current global liquidity tightening and market adjustments represent an early reaction to expectations for a Fed rate hike in Q4. For China's bond market, the increased expectations of Fed tightening are not a negative factor. China's bond market is relatively independent and has a low correlation with US Treasuries. Additionally, given the abundant domestic liquidity, the expected tightening of overseas liquidity and adjustments in equity markets could drive capital towards the bond market, supporting the current level of long-term bonds. Going forward, the 10-year government bond yield is expected to continue fluctuating around the 1.70% mark; a break below 1.70% will still need to wait for incremental domestic information.

Data:

Data to be released today include China's May CPI annual rate, the US May unadjusted CPI annual rate, US May seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate, US May seasonally adjusted core CPI monthly rate, US May unadjusted core CPI annual rate, the Bank of Canada interest rate decision as of June 10, and China's May M2 money supply annual rate (TBD). Additionally, monitor the Bank of Canada's interest rate announcement and the monetary policy press conference given by Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers.

Crude oil:

Overnight, both oil futures fell, with WTI down 2.85% and Brent down 2.03%. Oil prices were volatile on Tuesday. Trump stated early in the day that negotiations with Iran were "in the final stages of a very, very good deal," which pushed Brent crude lower. However, Trump later posted on social media that Iran had shot down a US Apache helicopter patrolling the Strait of Hormuz and declared that "the US must respond," causing oil prices to jump. Subsequently, Iran further escalated its rhetoric, warning that "foreign military forces near Iran face risks," pushing oil prices somewhat higher. But ultimately, crude oil ended lower at the close. (Wall Street CN)

Data: API crude oil inventories for the week ending June 5 in the US fell by 9.119 million barrels, compared to expectations for a draw of 3.421 million barrels and a previous draw of 6.757 million barrels. API gasoline inventories for the week ending June 5 in the US fell by 1.191 million barrels, compared to expectations for a draw of 614,000 barrels and a previous build of 3.454 million barrels. (Jin10 Data APP)

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) stated on Tuesday local time that due to the loss of more than 11 million barrels per day of crude production from the Middle East caused by the war with Iran, major consumers are utilizing inventories to cover supply shortfalls at an unprecedented pace, and OECD petroleum inventories are heading towards their lowest levels since at least 2003. The EIA noted that, based on its current assumption that maritime transport activities in the Strait of Hormuz are unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels before early 2027, total OECD commercial petroleum inventories will fall to slightly below 2.3 billion barrels by December. (Jin10 Data APP)