Geopolitical Disruptions Drove BC Copper to Close Sharply Higher, SHFE and LME Inverted Price Spread Widened Further [SMM BC Copper Commentary]

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2607 contract opened at 93,960 yuan/mt, dipped to 93,310 yuan/mt early in the session, then fluctuated upward. After the day session opened, it swung wildly while trending higher to touch 94,980 yuan/mt, then moved sideways, ultimately closing at 94,810 yuan/mt, up 2.07%. Open interest stood at 10,943 lots, an increase of 597 lots from the previous trading day, and trading volume reached 9,901 lots, indicating bulls adding positions. On the macro front, Iran halted US-Iran negotiations, attributing the decision to Israel's military operations in Lebanon, and plans to fully blockade the Strait of Hormuz. Market risk sentiment heated up. Additionally, the US White House further adjusted import tariff policies on aluminum, steel, and copper, intensifying market concerns over tariff policies. Moreover, the recent widening of the COMEX-LME price spread raised market concerns about supply in non-US regions, providing upward momentum for copper prices. On the fundamentals front, supply side, high-quality copper sources were scarce, while standard-quality copper and non-registered copper supply was relatively sufficient; overall supply tightened marginally, with notable structural divergence. Demand side, copper prices rose significantly, severely suppressing downstream purchasing sentiment, and demand remained sluggish.

SHFE copper 2607 contract closed at 106,620 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2607 contract at 94,810 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 107,135 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2607 contract and BC copper was -515, with the price spread remaining inverted and widening notably from the previous day.