Macro Fundamentals Intertwined with Bullish and Bearish Factors, China Domestic Aluminum Prices Move Sideways [SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes]
[Macro and Fundamentals Send Mixed Signals; Domestic Aluminum Prices Move Sideways] On the macro front, US consumer confidence edged down, confirming growing anxiety among American consumers over high living costs. Although the labour market remained generally stable with few signs of large-scale layoffs, the recent surge in fuel prices posed particular challenges for low-income households, and the bearish sentiment from external markets indirectly weighed on aluminum prices. On the fundamentals side, supply shortfalls and low inventory outside China continued to provide floor support, but elevated domestic inventory levels remained the core factor suppressing significant price rallies. Additionally, weak trading activity in the spot market further limited upside room for aluminum prices. In the near term, aluminum prices are expected to continue moving sideways in a pattern where LME outperforms SHFE.