The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Rose Slightly Near the Close, Spot Market Largely Maintained a Cautious Stance [SMM Tin Morning Brief]

SMM Tin Morning Brief, May 26, 2026:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract consolidated at highs during the night session and edged up slightly toward the close, settling at 424,530 yuan/mt, up 0.52%.

Macro: (1) Driven by TSMC's surging share price, Taiwan, China's stock market capitalization surpassed that of India. As of Monday, Taiwan's stock market capitalization climbed to $4.95 trillion, while India's fell to $4.92 trillion. TSMC accounted for over 42% of Taiwan's benchmark index, with its share price rising 49% this year, benefiting from its dominance in AI chips. The contrast between Taiwan's surging market capitalization and India's decline highlighted two major themes of 2026: the Iran war pushing up oil prices and dragging down energy-importing nations, while the AI boom drove tech stocks higher, particularly benefiting manufacturing hubs such as Taiwan. (2) Italy's benchmark stock index broke through its all-time closing high set in 2000, with strong recent rebounds in the energy and chip sectors providing powerful momentum for it to reach record levels. On Monday, Italy's FTSE MIB index rose as much as 1.2% intraday, touching 50,121.2 points, surpassing the previous record set 26 years ago. Following three consecutive years of gains, Italian stocks have risen 11% so far in 2026. STMicroelectronics, a chip supplier to Tesla and Apple, has surged 156% so far in 2026. The rapid buildout of AI infrastructure has significantly boosted demand for optical components capable of transmitting data more efficiently. Meanwhile, as oil and gas prices surged, energy companies Saipem Spa and Eni SpA rose 73% and 41% respectively in 2026.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply side: Most smelters focused on maintaining stable production in May. (2) Demand side: Downstream procurement remained cautious, with purchases made based on order conditions.

Spot market: Amid wide fluctuations in futures, the spot market largely maintained a cautious stance. Last week, downstream end-users released some material turnover demand, with the overall focus on securing production for immediate orders, and market transactions were relatively mediocre. Facing futures fluctuating at highs, traders mostly chose to hold prices and wait, with spot premiums for mainstream brands remaining stable, concentrated in the range of 1,000-1,500 yuan/mt, and actual market transactions tended to be mediocre.
 

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