Fed Minutes Signal Shift to Tightening Policy Amid Inflation Concerns, Surprising Markets

Published: May 23, 2026 15:27

Save

The US Fed meeting minutes revealed that many policymakers were inclined to abandon the easing bias, with most participants indicating that if inflation remained persistently above the 2% level, it would be necessary to tighten policy. Only a few officials supported future interest rate cuts, and the hawkish tone of the language far exceeded market expectations. Additionally, according to CME data, the market is now pricing in a 60% probability of the US Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points before year-end, while expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026 have virtually disappeared.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or for more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

23 mins ago

Secondary Aluminum Market Supply-Demand Weakness Continues[Weekly Review of Aluminum Scrap and Secondary Aluminum]

[Weekly Review of Aluminum Scrap and Secondary Aluminum]Pre-Holiday Stockpiling Fell Through, Supply and Demand in Secondary Aluminum Market Both Remained Weak

23 mins ago

47 mins ago

SMM Update: SHFE Casting Aluminum Alloy Inventory Drops by 2,170 Tons on June 18

[SMM Flash] SHFE data showed that on June 18, total registered cast aluminum alloy warrants amounted to 33,785 mt, a decrease of 2,170 mt from the previous trading day. Among them, the total registered in Shanghai was 2,956 mt, a decrease of 389 mt from the previous trading day; in Guangdong, 5,622 mt, a decrease of 483 mt; in Jiangsu, 7,775 mt, an increase of 0 mt; in Zhejiang, 11,211 mt, a decrease of 817 mt; in Chongqing, 5,376 mt, a decrease of 481 mt; in Sichuan, 845 mt, an increase of 0 mt.

47 mins ago

50 mins ago

Strong Buying Sentiment in Central China Before Dragon Boat Festival, Transactions Active but Prices Weak

On the last day before the Dragon Boat Festival, downstream processing enterprises in central China showed strong buying sentiment. Overall market transactions were relatively active, but actual transaction prices were relatively weak. Traders holding goods tended to sell in large quantities before the festival to mitigate the risk of price changes during the holiday period. Ultimately, the actual transaction price range in the Central China market centered around a discount of 70-100 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum July contract.

50 mins ago