Aluminum Processing Operating Rate Rises 0.2 Points to 64.4%, Driven by Export Growth Amid Weak Recovery

May 21, 2026:

This week, the operating rate of China's leading downstream aluminum processing enterprises edged up 0.2 percentage points WoW to 64.4%. The industry overall exhibited a weak recovery trend, but structural divergence within the sector remained pronounced. The operating rate of the aluminum wire and cable industry rose 0.6 percentage points WoW to 67.6%, benefiting from sustained growth in aluminum stranded wire exports, which effectively filled the order gap caused by periodic weakness in domestic power grid deliveries. The operating rate of aluminum plate/sheet and strip held steady at 72.6%, with April exports up 18% both YoY and MoM. Orders from the UAE and other Middle Eastern regions gradually recovered via Red Sea rerouting. Combined with the surge in large battery cell demand ahead of the energy storage "630" grid connection deadline (June 30), production schedules for battery casings, brazing materials, and other high-end plate/sheet and strip products were fully booked, offsetting the drag from weak civilian general plate demand and elevated aluminum prices. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy edged up 0.2 percentage points, with April aluminum wheel hub exports up 19.43% MoM and up 12.71% YoY. The recovery in export orders provided demand support, but stable domestic demand and elevated aluminum prices constrained incremental growth. The operating rate of the aluminum extrusion industry rose 0.5 percentage points WoW to 57.4%. Construction extrusion gradually recovered by taking infrastructure-related orders, while industrial extrusion benefited from improved downstream purchase willingness following the earlier pullback in aluminum prices, with orders from automotive lightweighting, rail transit, and other sectors boosting operating rates. The operating rate of aluminum foil fell 0.3 percentage points WoW to 74.0%. Although ESS battery foil demand remained robust, air-conditioner foil orders weakened notably due to sluggish property completions, high channel inventory, and export pressure, dragging down overall output. The operating rate of secondary aluminum producers held flat at 56.4%, as tight supply of compliant aluminum scrap, elevated costs, and weak end-use demand exerted dual pressure. Enterprises took orders cautiously, with some reduced or suspended production orders spilling over to industry leaders. Overall, the aluminum processing industry achieved a slight rise in operating rates this week, driven by the recovery in export orders, the surge in energy storage demand, and the repair of infrastructure-related orders. The industry maintained relatively strong resilience, and going forward, close attention should be paid to the sustainability of export orders and the boosting effect of aluminum price trends on demand.

Primary aluminum alloy: This week, the operating rate of industry leaders in primary aluminum alloy edged up 0.2 percentage points WoW. Supply side, enterprises overall maintained normal long-term contract production without adjusting production schedule expectations. Demand side, April aluminum wheel hub export data performed well: up 19.43% MoM and up 12.71% YoY, indicating export orders recovered to some extent, providing certain support for aluminum wheel hub demand. However, Chinese market demand remained stable without significant growth; meanwhile, aluminum prices continued to fluctuate at highs, suppressing enterprises' willingness to increase production, thereby limiting further improvement in primary aluminum alloy operating rates. Overall, the primary aluminum alloy industry is expected to maintain its current operating trend next week, with operating rates remaining stable and no significant fluctuations.

Aluminum plate/sheet and strip: This week, the operating rate of industry leaders in aluminum plate/sheet and strip remained flat WoW at 72.6%, with production at industry leaders maintaining stable operations overall. In April, NEV production, sales, and exports recovered simultaneously, slightly driving automotive sheet demand. Additionally, the energy storage industry was sprinting toward the grid connection deadline (June 30), triggering a surge in large battery cell demand, with production schedules for related plate/sheet and strip materials such as battery shell brazing materials remaining relatively full. However, civilian general-purpose plates, affected by end-use demand and aluminum prices continuing to fluctuate at highs, entered a phase of involution within existing capacity. The export side saw significant incremental growth, with April aluminum plate/sheet and strip exports reaching 327,900 mt, up 18% both YoY and MoM. UAE export volumes rebounded, recovering from 1,500 mt to 6,000 mt, as previously suspended Middle Eastern orders were gradually restored through rerouting via the Red Sea. Incremental orders from long-established customers outside China continued to be released, serving as an important support for the industry. Overall, exports and high-end segmented demand underpinned production, but elevated aluminum prices and weak general-purpose plate demand continued to weigh on the sector, and downward pressure on aluminum plate/sheet and strip industry operating rates will gradually accumulate.

Aluminum wire and cable: This week, the operating rate of China's aluminum wire and cable industry registered 67.6%, up 0.6 percentage points WoW. The industry operating rate strengthened during the week, mainly driven by continued growth in aluminum wire export orders, with manufacturers' positive production schedule expectations driving capacity utilization rates to continue rising. However, year-to-date power grid aluminum delivery volumes declined 21% YoY, and with the concentrated power grid delivery date having passed, conductor-type orders appeared slightly weak. Export side, April aluminum wire exports totaled 27,500 mt, up 4.7 percentage points MoM, of which pure aluminum stranded wire exports totaled 15,500 mt, accounting for 56% of total exports, up 16 percentage points from the previous month. Under current expectations of continued export order growth, this will effectively support industry operations and offset the short-term weakness in domestic power grid orders. The operating rate of China's aluminum wire is expected to continue to fluctuate at highs in the near term. Aluminum extrusion: China's aluminum extrusion industry operating rate came in at 57.4% this week, up 0.5 percentage points WoW, showing characteristics of weak recovery and marginal improvement. Building extrusion side, operating rates maintained a gradual recovery pace this week. Although new construction starts and new completion data in real estate remained sluggish, extrusion enterprises proactively optimized their order structures by taking on more infrastructure-related orders such as public buildings, industrial parks, and large factory complexes to offset downward pressure from the real estate sector. Meanwhile, retail orders for home decoration doors and windows, interior decoration, and other segments remained resilient, providing supplementary support for building extrusion operations. Industrial extrusion segment, operations were stable and improving this week. Earlier aluminum price pullbacks eased downstream raw material procurement cost pressure, coupled with steady release of manufacturing end-user orders, market procurement and production willingness continued to improve. New orders carried over into this week's production, driving industry operating rates higher. Enterprises in Shandong reported that previously reserved automotive lightweighting orders recently entered production, while rail transit and container orders also increased recently, driving operating rates up. Overall, building extrusion steadily recovered relying on infrastructure project orders; industrial extrusion maintained steady improvement supported by downstream manufacturing rigid demand. Aluminum extrusion operating rates are expected to continue a mild recovery trend going forward.

Aluminum foil: Operating rates of aluminum foil industry leaders fell 0.3 percentage points WoW to 74.0% this week, with the production side still maintaining a compact production pace overall. The energy storage segment became a core growth driver, with downstream large battery cell orders in undersupply. Top-tier players' order schedules have been booked through 2027, and enterprises generally prioritized supply for long-term strategic cooperation orders, continuously boosting battery foil production and sales. The air-conditioner foil segment showed notable weakness, pressured by sluggish real estate completions, earlier front-loading of government subsidy demand, ex-China capacity diversion, and high channel inventory. May air-conditioner foil orders weakened notably MoM. Export side, April aluminum foil exports grew 11% MoM. The shipping deadlock in the Middle East market gradually eased, and after Red Sea rerouting was implemented, previously accumulated orders were delivered in bulk. UAE exports recovered significantly from 2,500 mt to 4,500 mt, while the recovery trend in new orders also became increasingly clear. Overall, supported by battery foil demand resilience and incremental export release, the aluminum foil industry's overall operating level stayed high. However, the clear pullback trend in China's air-conditioner foil orders will continue to drag on overall industry output, driving the center of May aluminum foil operating rates gradually lower.

Secondary aluminum: This week, the operating rate of secondary aluminum industry leaders remained at 56.4% WoW. Currently, compliant aluminum scrap supply remained persistently tight, compounded by import costs that stayed high, putting enterprises under significant raw material procurement pressure. Downstream demand remained weak, with insufficient order release in the end-use market, and downstream buyers only maintained a just-needed restocking pace. The industry was caught in the dual pressure of high costs and sluggish demand, with some enterprises reducing or halting production. Overflow orders shifted to top-tier players, supporting large producers' order performance. However, enterprises remained cautious in taking orders, prioritizing aluminum liquid supply and long-term contracts, with low willingness to take spot orders that yielded thin margins or even losses, constraining further rebound in the industry's operating rate. Additionally, some surveyed sample enterprises saw domestic orders pull back, relying on moderate export profits to fill order gaps and offset the impact of weakening domestic trade. Overall, under the dual suppression of high costs and weak demand, the operating rate of the secondary aluminum industry still trended downward, with expectations of further pullback in operating levels in the short term.