Metals Declined Across the Board, SHFE Tin Fell Over 3%, SHFE Copper, SHFE Aluminum, and Stainless Steel Led the Decline, SHFE Silver Dropped Over 9% [SMM Midday Review]

SMM May 18:

Metals market:

As of the midday close, domestic base metals fell across the board. SHFE copper dropped 1.47%, SHFE aluminum fell 1.22%, SHFE lead declined 0.67%, SHFE zinc lost 0.91%, SHFE tin slid 3.26%, and SHFE nickel fell 1.17%.

In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum alloy futures fell 1.1%, the most-traded alumina contract dropped 0.54%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 0.12%, the most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.82%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures declined 0.98%.

Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore dropped 0.99%, rebar fell 1.02%, hot-rolled coil declined 0.89%, and stainless steel lost 1.41%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.12%, while the most-traded coke contract fell 0.74%.

Overseas base metals: as of 11:41, LME metals declined across the board. LME copper fell 0.28%, LME aluminum dropped 0.63%, LME lead lost 0.2%, LME zinc declined 0.81%, LME tin slipped 0.05%, and LME nickel fell 0.35%.

Precious metals: as of 11:41, COMEX gold fell 0.59%, hitting an intraday low of $4,483.5/oz; COMEX silver dropped 3.34%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 1.61%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract declined 9.38%.

In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 2.36%, and the most-traded palladium futures dropped 1.92%.

As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 3.77% to 2,590 points.

As of 11:41 on May 18, midday futures quotes for selected contracts:

Spot Market and Fundamentals

Copper:Today in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 260 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 180 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 110 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 104,235 yuan/mt, down 1,515 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 104,160 yuan/mt, down 1,485 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory increased again today...

Macro Front

China:

[NBS: Industrial value-added output of enterprises above designated size grew 5.6% in January-April; the national economy maintained a steady and progressive development trend]From January to April, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments earnestly implemented the decisions and plans of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, adhered to the general principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, fully and faithfully applied the new development philosophy, accelerated the construction of a new development paradigm, effectively implemented more proactive and impactful macro policies, and focused on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations. Production and supply grew steadily, market sales continued to expand, foreign trade resilience remained evident, employment and prices were generally stable, new growth drivers strengthened, and high-quality development continued to advance toward new and better outcomes. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that from January to April, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide grew 5.6% YoY. By three major categories, the value added of the mining industry grew 5.5% YoY, manufacturing grew 5.8%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water grew 4.5%. The value added of equipment manufacturing grew 8.7% YoY, and that of high-tech manufacturing grew 12.6%, which were 3.1 and 7.0 percentage points faster than the overall industrial value added above designated size, respectively. By economic type, the value added of state-owned holding enterprises grew 4.4% YoY; joint-stock enterprises grew 6.0%, foreign-invested and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises grew 3.9%; and private enterprises grew 5.2%. By product, the production of 3D printing equipment, lithium-ion batteries, and industrial robots grew 50.9%, 36.0%, and 25.7% YoY, respectively. In April, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide grew 4.1% YoY, up 0.05% MoM. In April, the manufacturing PMI was 50.3%; the business production and operation activity expectations index was 54.5%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month. From January to March, industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide achieved total profits of 1,696 billion yuan, up 15.5% YoY.

[NBS: In April, new home selling prices in first-tier cities rose MoM, while declines in second- and third-tier cities narrowed or remained the same as the previous month]NBS: In April, new home selling prices in first-tier cities rose 0.1% MoM, with the increase pulling back 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen rose 0.4%, 0.1%, and 0.1% respectively, while Beijing fell 0.2%. New home selling prices in second-tier cities fell 0.1% MoM, with the decline narrowing 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. New home selling prices in third-tier cities fell 0.3% MoM, with the decline the same as the previous month. Among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, 21 cities saw new home selling prices rise or remain flat MoM, an increase of 5 from the previous month.

[Shenzhen property market heat continues, housing provident fund loan share rises significantly]The latest statistics showed that after the new policy, the share of housing provident fund loans rose significantly, reflecting from one perspective that the new policy precisely released rigid and improvement-oriented housing demand, market confidence strengthened, and transaction heat continued. As of May 17, citywide first-hand and second-hand residential net signings totaled 5,526 units, up 39.2% YoY. (Shenzhen Release)

US dollar:

As of 11:41, the US dollar index was up 0.09% at 99.34. According to the UK's Financial Times, two US Fed officials nominated by US President Trump opposed allowing Powell to serve as interim Fed chairman "without a time limit." This underscores that political divisions within the central bank are deepening as the White House continues its attacks on the US Fed. Fed Chairman Powell's second term ended on Friday. Powell was appointed as interim chairman to carry out duties before his formal successor, Warsh, completes his inauguration. Milan and Bowman, nominated by Trump to join the US Fed's Board of Governors, said in a joint statement that they supported Powell serving temporarily as interim chairman, but because the arrangement was "without a time limit," they "could not support this action." Milan cast a dissenting vote, while Bowman chose to abstain. Milan and Bowman stated that Powell's arrangement as interim chairman "should be limited to a clear and finite timeframe, at least one week," but they "could support a maximum term of one month."

DoubleLine Capital CEO Gundlach said investors would not see an interest rate cut at the next US Fed policy meeting. "Previously, expectations were for two interest rate cuts this year, but the inflation market is simply not cooperating," Gundlach said. "In my view, when the two-year Treasury yield is nearly 50 basis points above the federal funds rate, it is simply impossible to cut interest rates." Gundlach said Kevin Warsh, who was just confirmed as Fed Chairman, is taking office during a "difficult period." Gundlach said: "DoubleLine's model suggests that the leading digit of the next CPI reading will be '4'." In addition, according to the CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through June is 99.2%, with a 0.8% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut. The probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through July is 95.0%, with a 0.7% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut and a 4.2% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike. (Jin10 Data)

Ed Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research, said that as investors grow increasingly concerned about inflation, the US Fed needs to keep pace with the bond market or risk losing control over borrowing costs. He noted that given the current market environment is "no longer" suited for an easing stance, the US Fed should remove its easing bias at the June meeting. "If the US Fed fails to remove this bias, investors will conclude that the US Fed is falling behind the inflation curve and will demand a higher inflation risk premium," Yardeni said. "We expect the US Fed to hold rates unchanged at the June meeting and shift to a tightening policy stance."Yardeni added that the current economic backdrop no longer justified a dovish lean, let alone interest rate cuts. On the contrary, he believed that a more hawkish Warsh than the market expected could actually benefit Trump by helping to suppress long-term Treasury yields. (Jin10 Data)

Data:

The US May NAHB Housing Market Index and China's April total electricity consumption YoY (TBD) were scheduled for release today. Also noteworthy: the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the national economic performance; the National Energy Administration publishes total electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month; the G7 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting was held through May 19.

Crude oil:

As of 11:41, oil prices in both markets rose, with WTI up 2.21% and Brent up 1.83%. US-Iran tensions escalated again, as Netanyahu spoke with Trump to "discuss the possibility of resuming military operations against Iran." Trump warned, "Time is running out for Iran, they'd better act fast or they'll get nothing. Time is of the essence!" Brown Brothers Harriman's Global Head of Market Strategy Elias Haddad noted: "The Strait of Hormuz blockade will continue to be the dominant driver for markets, as there is no clear resolution in sight, and the global oil inventory buffer is shrinking rapidly. Therefore, crude oil prices face further upside risk, which will simultaneously weigh on global bond and equity markets." (Wallstreetcn)

Iraq's new Oil Minister Basim Mohammed Khudair stated at a press conference on the 16th that the country exported approximately 10 million barrels of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz in April, far below the roughly 93 million barrels per month before the US-Israel-Iran conflict broke out. Khudair said Iraq currently plans to increase the flow through the pipeline connecting Kirkuk in Iraq to the port of Ceyhan in Turkey to boost exports. However, unless the war ends, Iraq's crude oil exports cannot return to pre-war levels. Iraq plans to engage in dialogue and cooperation with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to enhance the country's export capacity. (Jin10 Data)

In addition, Ukraine's Security Service said Ukraine struck a refinery and two oil pumping stations in Russia's Moscow region. Meanwhile, a latest opinion poll in Japan showed that amid crude oil undersupply, 70% of Japanese citizens believed the government should call for energy-saving measures. Recently, Japan's crude oil imports plummeted, and the country has released strategic petroleum reserves twice, sparking widespread concern. Kyodo News conducted a telephone survey from the 16th to the 17th, asking the public about issues including the undersupply of crude oil and its derivatives. A survey released on the 17th showed that 70.5% of respondents said the Japanese government should call for measures to conserve energy and resources. Regarding naphtha, a key raw material for producing plastics, 70.6% of respondents said they "felt uneasy" due to undersupply. (Jin10 Data)

Spot Market Overview:

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