Kazakhstan Copper Production Declined, LME Copper and SHFE Copper Both Closed Lower Overnight, January-April [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Monday, May 18, 2026
Futures: Last Friday, LME copper opened at $13,609.5/mt, initially touching a high of $13,661.5/mt before the price center gradually shifted lower to $13,467.5/mt, ultimately moving sideways to close at $13,544.5/mt, down 3.15%, with trading volume at 34,000 lots and open interest at 281,000 lots, up 3,469 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears adding positions. Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 104,050 yuan/mt, initially dipping to 103,810 yuan/mt before the price center edged higher to touch 104,760 yuan/mt, ultimately moving sideways to close at 104,440 yuan/mt, down 0.26%, with trading volume at 38,000 lots and open interest at 167,000 lots, down 3,793 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls reducing positions.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary] News:
(1) On May 15 (Friday), data released by Kazakhstan's Statistics Bureau showed that the country's copper production from January to April this year fell 1.9% YoY to 155,715 mt. Of this, April production was 38,090 mt, up 8.9% YoY. Data also showed that refined zinc production from January to April fell 12.8% YoY to 72,649 mt. Of this, April production was 21,844 mt, up 0.4% YoY. Alumina and unwrought aluminum production from January to April fell 19.1% YoY to 479,543 mt. Of this, April production was 102,499 mt, down 29.6% YoY.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On May 15, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2605 contract were quoted at a discount of 180 yuan/mt to a discount of 50 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 115 yuan/mt. It was the last trading day of the SHFE copper 2605 contract, and per SMM's #1 copper cathode price assessment methodology, SMM consistently quotes against the front-month contract. In early trading, the SHFE copper 2605 contract largely traded between 105,160-106,100 yuan/mt, while the SHFE copper 2606 contract traded between 106,120-106,200 yuan/mt. The inter-month price spread between futures contracts ranged from a Backwardation of 20 yuan/mt to a Backwardation of 140 yuan/mt, and the import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2606 contract ranged from a loss of 420 yuan/mt to 190 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, SHFE copper prices have declined somewhat, and downstream orders saw a slight increase in volume, but current copper prices remain less attractive to end-users, with the volume increase not being significant and the high-price suppression effect persisting. According to SMM, end-users mostly placed orders around 102,000-103,000 yuan/mt, and some downstream enterprises have opted for furnace shutdowns and maintenance due to high copper prices, reflecting the notable suppression of actual demand at current price levels. After the contract rollover, the market will officially price around the 2606 contract, and attention should be focused on the outflow of unmatched warrants. However, current open interest on the SHFE copper 2605 contract stands at only 4,775 lots, with limited delivery participation, and the concentrated release of warrants is expected to have relatively limited further pressure on spot discounts. Supported by delivery logic, Shanghai spot copper discounts did not see a significant decline. However, if copper prices remain at current highs, the demand side is unlikely to improve effectively, and spot discounts may come under pressure. Overall, spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2606 contract are expected to remain at a discount today.
(2) Guangdong: On May 15, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was reported at 270 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was reported at a premium of 200 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was reported at a premium of 130 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 105,750 yuan/mt, down 2,020 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 105,645 yuan/mt, down 2,020 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, on the delivery day, both supply and demand were subdued, and spot trades were quiet.
(3) Imported copper: On May 15, the average warrant price rose $1/mt from the previous trading day to $70/mt (price range $66-74/mt); the average B/L price rose $1/mt from the previous trading day to $67/mt (price range $65-71/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price rose $2/mt from the previous trading day to $38/mt (price range $36-44/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving in mid-to-late May.
(4) Secondary copper: On May 15, the 11:30 futures closing price was 106,020 yuan/mt, down 930 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average spot premiums were -115 yuan/mt, down 65 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. On May 15, copper scrap prices fell 1,200 yuan/mt MoM; the copper scrap sales sentiment index rose to 2.76, and the purchasing sentiment index rose to 2.17. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 4,006 yuan/mt, up 406 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,700 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, as copper prices pulled back, many copper scrap suppliers hoped to sell off their high-priced inventory as soon as possible. Although downstream secondary copper rod enterprises were willing to purchase, their current digestion capacity was limited. Some secondary copper rod enterprises even notified copper scrap traders that it would take at least 7-10 days to unload goods after delivery.
Prices: On the macro front, rising US inflation data combined with the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushed up international oil prices, intensifying concerns over rising inflation. Market bets on rate hikes within the year warmed up, weighing on copper prices. In addition, US Treasury yields continued to climb, driving the US dollar stronger and suppressing copper price movements. Fundamentals side, supply of both imported and domestic cargoes saw arrivals edge up slightly, with the tight supply situation marginally improving. Demand side, trades were rather subdued and did not see effective improvement despite the pullback in copper prices. Overall, copper prices are expected to show a fluctuating trend in the doldrums today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make prudent decisions and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.]