[SMM Hot Topic Analysis] Supply Pressure Intensifies: Can May Bring a Market Turning Point?

Entering May, macro impacts gradually weakened, and price logic reverted to fundamentals. However, hot metal production has already peaked. Meanwhile, supply pressure is gradually increasing and supply-demand imbalances are intensifying, suppressing iron ore prices. From industrial data, current demand in and outside China remains robust, steel inventory destocking is progressing well, and overall supply-demand imbalances are not prominent. Comprehensively, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at highs in May, with limited downside room.

However, entering June, off-season effects will become prominent and supply-demand imbalances will intensify; at that time, macro will enter a vacuum period, and ore prices are expected to come under pressure and weaken.

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