Dual Support from Cost and Stockpiling, Magnesium Ingot Market Stopped Falling and Stabilized This Week [SMM Magnesium Weekly Review]

1 Market Review

1 Dolomite

This week, the ex-factory tax-exclusive price of 1-3 cm dolomite (Wutai) was 108 yuan/mt, flat WoW, and the ex-factory tax-exclusive price of 2-4 cm dolomite (Wutai) was 138 yuan/mt, flat WoW.

Dolomite prices in China remained stable this week. Supply side, dolomite production in the Wutai area continued to be suspended, and the market relied on supply from multiple provinces including Hubei, Wenxi surrounding areas, Henan, and Inner Mongolia to fill the gap. Demand side, downstream primary magnesium smelter operating rates continued to rise, providing strong bottom support for dolomite market demand. Overall, dolomite ex-factory prices remained stable, but considering that current oil prices continued to hover at highs, dolomite transportation costs remained elevated, and delivery-to-factory prices consolidated at highs this week.

1.2.1 Magnesium Ingot (Fugu, Shenmu - Main Production Area)

Magnesium prices consolidated at lows and stabilized this week. As of press time, mainstream quotations for 99.90% magnesium ingot in the main production area were 16,600-16,700 yuan/mt, basically flat WoW.

Magnesium prices consolidated at lows this week, with support against further declines coming from two aspects: first, the downward momentum in magnesium prices slowed down, market acceptance of the 16,500 yuan/mt price level improved, and combined with the pre-Labour Day holiday stockpiling window opening, some downstream players and traders entered the market to restock during the holiday last week, with market transactions steadily following through; second, rising coal prices pushed up primary magnesium smelting costs slightly, smelters' sentiment to hold prices firm recovered, and low-priced supplies basically disappeared, further supporting magnesium prices.

1.2.2 Magnesium Ingot (Tianjin Port - China FOB)

This week, China FOB prices were quoted at $2,380-2,450/mt, with an average of $2,420/mt. The export market was sluggish this week, with quotations overall falling back into involution.

This week, the magnesium ingot export market overall returned to a downward trajectory. On one hand, affected by consecutive declines in magnesium ingot ex-factory prices, downstream wait-and-see sentiment was strong, overseas clients generally chased prices lower, and actual transaction prices mostly concentrated in the lower range. Even though factory prices somewhat recovered, the export market showed no improvement. On the other hand, orders from markets outside China had been released ahead of schedule in Q1, resulting in weak new orders recently, making it difficult for prices to see significant adjustments.

1.3 Magnesium Powder

This week, mainstream tax-inclusive ex-factory prices for 20-80 mesh Chinese magnesium powder were 17,750-17,850 yuan/mt; China FOB prices were $2,400-2,460/mt.

The magnesium powder market remained stable overall this week. Q2 order conditions for magnesium powder enterprises were good, with export orders having been gradually procured in Q1 and enterprises still in the stockpiling phase; domestic trade demand was generally stable, with producers mostly maintaining produce based on demand. Recently, raw material magnesium ingot inventory stockpiling was relatively sufficient, and enterprise procurement sentiment turned to wait-and-see, which was further reinforced by stable magnesium ingot prices this week. Magnesium powder prices are expected to move sideways in line with the raw material market in the near term.

1.4 Magnesium Alloy

This week, mainstream tax-inclusive ex-factory prices for Chinese magnesium alloy were 18,750-18,950 yuan/mt, and mainstream FOB prices for Chinese magnesium alloy were $2,760-2,840/mt.

The magnesium alloy market overall operated with a pattern of firmer magnesium ingot prices and stable processing fees this week. Supply side, magnesium alloy enterprise operations and supply remained stable, with some producers holding small amounts of inventory. Demand side, after raw material magnesium ingot prices declined, downstream die-casting enterprises restocked in batches on dips, and market transactions gradually recovered. At the end-user level, stricter enforcement of new national standards for two-wheeled electric vehicles was favorable for improving magnesium alloy component penetration rates, which will provide strong support for magnesium alloy demand in the long term. Overall, the market still maintained a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, alloy processing fees remained firm, and price trends moved in sync with magnesium ingot futures.

2 Weekly Summary

This week, China's magnesium industry chain overall showed a stable-to-firm trend with narrow-range fluctuations. Raw material dolomite relied on surrounding provinces to supplement supply due to production suspension in the main production area, with rising downstream primary magnesium smelting operating rates forming rigid demand support. Combined with elevated transportation costs, prices remained stable overall with delivery-to-factory prices consolidating at highs. The domestic magnesium ingot market consolidated at lows and stabilized, benefiting from pre-holiday restocking driving transaction recovery and smelting cost increases boosting producers' sentiment to hold prices firm. The export market remained sluggish due to overseas clients chasing prices lower and weak new orders. Magnesium powder and magnesium alloy markets operated in sync with stability: the former maintained produce based on demand supported by stable domestic and export orders and sufficient raw material inventory, while the latter moved in tandem with magnesium ingot prices with firm processing fees, and stood to benefit in the long term from demand support driven by stricter enforcement of new national standards for two-wheeled electric vehicles. The overall industry chain supply-demand pattern showed localized divergence but overall stability.