[SMM Manganese Ore Weekly Review] Manganese Ore Market Fluctuated and Pulled Back, Intensifying Tug-of-War Between High Cost Support and Weak Demand

April 30 update:

Northern ports: South African high-iron 33.1-35 yuan/mtu, flat WoW from Friday; South African semi-carbonate 39.8-40.3 yuan/mtu, down WoW from Friday; Gabon 44-44.6 yuan/mtu, down WoW from Friday; 46% Australian lumps 45.5-46 yuan/mtu, down WoW from Friday.

Southern ports: South African high-iron 36-36.5 yuan/mtu, flat WoW from Friday; South African semi-carbonate 37.8-38.5 yuan/mtu, down WoW from Friday; Gabon 42.5-43 yuan/mtu, down WoW from Friday; 46% Australian lumps 45-45.5 yuan/mtu, down WoW from Friday.

With strong cost support from outside China and limited demand uptake, the manganese ore market is currently in a volatile pullback trend.

Supply side, the core contradiction lies in the rigid rise of mine production costs, which directly limits downside room for manganese ore prices. On one hand, South African electricity prices have been approved for consecutive two-year raises, up 8.76% in April 2026 and 8.83% in April 2027; on the other hand, the South African government has confirmed comprehensive increases in all fuel product prices, and continued energy price fluctuations will further push up manganese ore production costs. In terms of specific offers, South32's June 2026 shipment South African semi-carbonate lumps offer to China was $5/mtu (down $0.4/mtu from previous period), and Australian lumps offer was $5.4/mtu (down $0.5/mtu from previous period). Although current offers have pulled back slightly, manganese ore overall remains in a high-cost range, miners have low willingness to cut prices, and the cost side provides strong support to the market.

Demand side, SiMn futures recently moved sideways in the doldrums, market sentiment turned cautious, failing to effectively drive the spot market. Spot market side, northern SiMn plants maintained normal production schedule pace. The industry self-discipline production cut meeting in late March reached a consensus of 30% production cuts, but surveys showed that most plants in Ningxia have implemented production cuts while Inner Mongolia had limited cuts. Overall, the northern market's capacity to absorb manganese ore declined slightly. In south China, few ferroalloy plants were operating, all maintaining just-in-time procurement, and market trading atmosphere was sluggish. Currently, SiMn plants' procurement strategy focuses on just-in-time restocking and small orders, with strong sentiment to push for lower prices on manganese ore. Market transactions were mostly scattered small orders with insufficient trading activity, and manganese ore demand showed marginal weakening.

In the short term, manganese ore faces coexisting strong costs and weak demand, and the market is in a sideways consolidation phase. It is still necessary to track the pace of production cut implementation at northern ferroalloy plants, as well as the pace of southern ferroalloy plant resumption, port destocking, and manganese ore offers of overseas miners landing.