April Aluminum Liquid Aluminum Proportion Increase Below Expectations, May Expected to Rise Slightly [SMM Analysis]

SMM April 30 News:

According to SMM statistics, China's aluminum production in April 2026 (30 days) was up 1.7% YoY and down 2.9% MoM.

As the traditional peak consumption season continued, downstream sectors such as plate/sheet, strip and foil, and aluminum wire and cable provided effective demand support. The proportion of liquid aluminum in China edged up, rising 1.7 percentage points MoM to 75.3%. Overall performance was slightly below early-month expectations, with the core drag coming from weaker-than-expected aluminum extrusion orders. Based on SMM's proportion of liquid aluminum calculation data, China's aluminum casting ingot volume in April declined 3.4% YoY and 9.0% MoM.

Capacity changes: As of month-end April, SMM statistics showed China's existing aluminum capacity at approximately 46.209 million mt, with no MoM change.

Production forecast: Entering May 2026, the proportion of liquid aluminum production among China's aluminum enterprises is expected to diverge. Overall, as demand in markets outside China recovers, export orders for China's aluminum semis are expected to continue improving, supporting a slight rebound in the proportion of liquid aluminum. Overall, the proportion of liquid aluminum is expected to rise 0.5 percentage points to 75.8%.

[Data source statement: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.]

Data source: SMM