US Fed Interest Rate Cut Falls Short of Expectations, Copper Prices See Limited Rebound [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

2026.4.30 Thursday
Futures: Overnight LME copper opened at $13,073.5/mt, fluctuated upward to a high of $13,098/mt in early trading, then the price center gradually dipped to $12,967/mt, and finally closed at $12,989/mt, down 0.35%, with trading volume at 19,400 lots and open interest at 276,000 lots, up 42 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears adding positions. Overnight the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 101,190 yuan/mt, rose to 101,390 yuan/mt in early trading, then fluctuated downward throughout the session to a low of 100,790 yuan/mt near the close, and finally closed at 100,820 yuan/mt, down 0.43%, with trading volume at 37,700 lots and open interest at 195,000 lots, down 896 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls reducing positions.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary] News:
(1) China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNIA) announced at a press conference that in Q1, 12,325 large-scale nonferrous metals industrial enterprises achieved total profits of 192.85 billion yuan, up 110.7% YoY. Among them, nonferrous ore mining and dressing achieved profits of 50.87 billion yuan, up 95.5% YoY; smelting and rolling processing achieved profits of 141.98 billion yuan, up 116.7% YoY.
(2) The US Fed kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, but the decision saw four dissenting votes. Three regional Fed presidents — Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan — explicitly opposed retaining the "easing bias" language in the statement, catching the market off guard.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On April 29, the SHFE copper 2605 contract showed a strong unilateral upward trend in early trading. The opening price was 101,060 yuan/mt, and prices continued to rise after the open, reaching a high of 101,850 yuan/mt. The closing price pulled back slightly to 101,750 yuan/mt. The inter-month Contango price spread between futures contracts ranged from 80 yuan/mt to 10 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2605 contract ranged from a profit of 50 yuan/mt to a profit of 150 yuan/mt. Looking ahead, enterprises with pre-holiday stockpiling needs have largely completed their stockpiling, and market trading activity is expected to become sluggish. Supplier side, with month-end settlement approaching, willingness to sell was weak. Cargoes with invoices dated this month were priced high, and available low-priced cargoes were limited, providing strong support for spot premiums. Supply side, the import window has opened, and expectations for inflows of ex-China cargoes are strengthening. However, considering logistics and customs clearance delays, the short-term impact on the spot market is limited, and attention should be paid to the pace of post-holiday arrivals. Overall, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2605 contract are expected to maintain premiums tomorrow.
(2) Guangdong: On April 29, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 320 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 240 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 180 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 101,540 yuan/mt, down 780 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 101,440 yuan/mt, down 775 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, inventory rose for two consecutive days but suppliers continued to hold prices firm on shipments. However, actual trades were not strong and were expected to gradually recover after the holiday.
(3) Imported copper: On April 29, the average warrant price fell $5/mt from the previous trading day to $62/mt (price range 56-70 $/mt); the average B/L price fell $6/mt from the previous trading day to $59/mt (price range 51-69 $/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price fell $5/mt from the previous trading day to $30/mt (price range 20-40 $/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving from late April to early-to-mid May. Intraday spot trades were still affected by month-end settlement, and importers had extremely low willingness to import cargoes arriving at month-end, thus mostly selling at low prices before arrival.
(4) Secondary copper: On April 29 at 11:30, the futures closing price was 101,750 yuan/mt, down 500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium was 60 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Copper scrap prices fell 300 yuan/mt MoM. The copper scrap selling sentiment index dropped to 2.47, and the purchasing sentiment index dropped to 2.17. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 1,475 yuan/mt, down 155 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 790 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, copper prices lacked upward momentum, and many secondary copper rod enterprises indicated they had stockpiled sufficient raw materials for production during the Labor Day holiday. Therefore, intraday secondary copper raw material market trades were mediocre.
Prices: Macro perspective, the US Fed maintained current interest rates unchanged with significant internal policy disagreements; Powell will continue to serve as a governor after stepping down as Fed Chairman, and Warsh's nomination has passed the Senate committee review. Trump stated that now is an appropriate time to cut interest rates, and explicitly said he would not lift related blockade restrictions until the Iran nuclear issue is resolved. The US and Iran are currently maintaining phone communications. Iran issued a strong warning that if the US continues to seize ships, it will take unprecedented military measures, and revenge-related plans are still advancing. Combined with rising crude oil prices, copper prices were under pressure. Fundamentals side, supply side, approaching the month-end settlement period, suppliers' willingness to sell was relatively low, and low-priced spot cargo in circulation was generally tight; demand side, downstream end-user enterprises had largely completed pre-holiday stockpiling, overall market purchasing atmosphere was sluggish, and spot trades showed mediocre performance. Overall, copper prices were expected to maintain a fluctuating trend within a narrow range today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and not replace their own independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.]