Macro Tensions Eased Slightly While Lead Market Trading Remained Affected by Sluggish Supply and Demand [SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes]

Futures:

Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,959/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead was in the doldrums, testing toward $1,950/mt several times and finding support at the 60-day moving average. Entering the European session, continued destocking of lead ingots outside China helped LME lead gradually recover the previous day's losses, approaching $1,970/mt toward the close, and ultimately settling at $1,963/mt, up 0.31%.

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,750 yuan/mt. SHFE lead warrant inventory continued to rise, but import expectations declined. Bulls and bears remained locked in a standoff, and SHFE lead consolidated within the range of 16,700-16,775 yuan/mt for an extended period, ultimately closing at 16,760 yuan/mt, down 0.03%. Open interest reached 65,300 lots, an increase of 1,468 lots from the previous trading day.

On the macro front:

US President Trump said he could restart US-Iran talks as early as Friday, while Iran called him "a liar again." Israeli media reported that the ceasefire period would end on the 26th. Israeli media: Trump's deadline for the ceasefire with Iran was set to expire on the 26th. Three cargo ships were attacked within a single day, with two seized, plunging the Strait of Hormuz into a maritime confrontation. Lebanon planned to demand a one-month extension of the ceasefire deadline in talks with Israel.

:

In the lead spot market yesterday, lead prices reversed and pulled back. With limited circulating cargoes in the market, suppliers held prices firm on shipments. Quotations for primary lead cargoes self-picked up from production site also remained firm, with mainstream producing regions quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-works basis, while a few regions quoted at premiums of 120-150 yuan/mt. Secondary lead side, circulating cargoes in the market were limited, and smelters held prices firm on shipments. Secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-works basis, with a few quoted at premiums. Downstream enterprises generally shifted to a wait-and-see stance, with declining inquiry enthusiasm. Apart from just-in-time procurement, other enterprises mainly purchased under long-term contracts, and spot order market transactions weakened.

Inventory: As of April 22, LME lead inventory decreased by 300 mt from the previous day to 272,700 mt. SHFE lead ingot warrant inventory stood at 57,076 mt, an increase of 229 mt from the previous trading day.

Lead Price Forecast for Today:

US President Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire, slightly easing geopolitical tensions. Fundamentals side, destocking of lead ingots outside China continued, but the LME lead backwardation structure proved to be a "one-day wonder," and market trading remained under pressure from high lead ingot inventory levels. In the Chinese market, regional tightness in lead ingot supply persisted, and inventory at some lead smelters turned lower. With the Labour Day holiday approaching, some downstream enterprises plan to shut down for the holiday. Lead market supply and demand are both weak, and lead prices are expected to continue consolidating.

Data Source Statement: Data other than public information is SMM processed data based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.