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[SMM Tin Midday Review: SHFE Tin Contract Pulled Back in Morning Trading, but High Absolute Prices Suppressed Spot Transactions]

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, from the perspective of regional price spreads, the intraday Shanghai-Guangdong price spread widened further compared to yesterday, reaching 200 yuan/mt, with the theoretical arbitrage window now open. According to SMM, some suppliers have already begun relocating cargo from Shanghai warehouses to the Guangdong region to capture regional price spread gains. If spot premiums in Guangdong continue to remain strong, cross-regional cargo transfers will effectively divert available cargo from the Shanghai market, potentially providing marginal support for local spot discounts or even boosting spot premiums in Shanghai and other regions. Demand side, after consecutive declines in copper prices, downstream procurement sentiment recovered slightly, but overall purchasing remained dominated by rigid demand. Overall, under the combined effects of cross-regional arbitrage diversion and support from the inter-month price spread structure, Shanghai spot copper is expected to maintain a discount against the 2605 contract tomorrow. Going forward, attention should be paid to the transmission effect of Guangdong premiums on the east China market.