Widening Price Spread Between Futures Contracts Failed to Halt Selling Pressure, Shanghai Spot Copper Premiums Remained Under Pressure [SMM Shanghai Spot Copper]

SMM April 20 News:

In the morning session, SHFE copper 2605 opened lower with a gap, then stabilized and rebounded before moving sideways in a fluctuating trend. The opening price was 102,780 yuan/mt. After opening, prices gapped lower and continued to decline, hitting a low of 102,220 yuan/mt. After stabilizing, prices rebounded, rising to 102,930 yuan/mt. Prices then edged down, ranging between 102,700 yuan/mt and 102,850 yuan/mt. Subsequently, prices rose again, touching a high of 103,020 yuan/mt before pulling back slightly, with the closing price at 102,780 yuan/mt. The inter-month Contango price spread between futures contracts ranged from 160 yuan/mt to 120 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2605 contract ranged from a loss of 350 yuan/mt to 210 yuan/mt.

Intraday, the selling sentiment for copper cathode in the Shanghai region was 2.77, down 0.08 MoM, and the procurement sentiment was 2.72, down 0.02 MoM. In the early morning session, suppliers showed strong wait-and-see sentiment. Standard-quality copper was quoted at parity to a premium of 20 yuan/mt, with Jinchuan ISA, Zhongtiaoshan, Jinfeng, Tiefeng, and Jinchuan ISA Yongchang quoted at parity to a premium of 10 yuan/mt. High-quality copper including Jinchuan (plate), Guixi, and Jintun plate was quoted at a premium of 40 yuan/mt to a premium of 50 yuan/mt. In the second session, suppliers further lowered prices. Standard-quality copper such as Lufang and JCC was traded at a discount of 10 yuan/mt to parity. Jinguan, Jinxin, and Jintun PC were successively traded at parity to a premium of 20 yuan/mt on a factory-pickup basis. Non-registered copper was successively traded at a discount of 120 yuan/mt to a discount of 100 yuan/mt.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to remain under pressure. Demand side, according to SMM, orders from some downstream enterprises showed slight improvement WoW, and end-user acceptance of current copper prices may have improved, with just-in-time procurement continuing. Market structure side, the inter-month Contango price spread between futures contracts widened slightly, and suppliers showed a tendency to hold prices firm. Meanwhile, some suppliers chose to lower quotes and push shipments to control inventory levels, leading to divergent market expectations for the outlook. Inventory side, SMM data showed that social inventory in the Shanghai region fell 5,400 mt WoW from Thursday, while Jiangsu region fell 6,700 mt, with the destocking pace continuing. Overall, under the combined effects of mild demand recovery, support from the price spread structure, and some selling pressure, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2605 contract are expected to remain at a discount tomorrow.