Ample Market Supply, Significant Resistance on Lead Prices [SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes]

Futures:

Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,919/mt, fluctuated downward to a low of $1,913/mt during the Asian session; it rebounded during the European session, reaching a high of $1,931/mt near the close, and finally settled at $1,928/mt, down 0.13%.

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,600 yuan/mt, fluctuated downward to a low of 16,545 yuan/mt after the opening, then rebounded as bears reduced positions, finally settling at a high of 16,610 yuan/mt, up 0.24%.

On the macro front:

On Monday, Trump said Iran wanted to reach a deal, after the US responded to the collapse of weekend peace talks by blockading Iranian ports. US Fed's Goolsbee: if oil prices stay at $90 per barrel for several consecutive months, it will start to pass through to other prices. Von der Leyen: the European Commission will unveil an energy price measures proposal on April 22 and plans to propose lower energy taxes in May. OPEC crude oil production in March fell by 7.88 million barrels per day to 20.79 million barrels per day, the largest single-month decline since data became available in the 1980s. Trump threatened to impose additional tariffs if China supplied weapons to Iran. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs: there are no winners in a tariff war. The People's Bank of China: the outstanding aggregate social financing stood at 456.46 trillion yuan at the end of March, up 7.9% YoY. At the end of March, broad money (M2) balance was 353.86 trillion yuan, up 8.5% YoY.

:

SHFE lead's decline widened compared to last Friday. Some suppliers held prices firm while shipping, raising quoted premiums. Cargoes of primary lead self-picked up from production sites also saw narrowed discounts. Mainstream production areas quoted at discounts of 30 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead on an ex-factory basis, with a few regions quoting at premiums of 100 yuan/mt. Secondary lead side, smelters held back from selling at low prices, and discounted cargoes decreased notably. Secondary refined lead was quoted at around parity against SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-factory basis, with some quoted at premiums of 25-75 yuan/mt. Downstream enterprises showed relatively improved purchasing enthusiasm, with more inquiries. Some purchased on demand at lower prices, and spot market transactions improved regionally.

Inventory: on April 13, LME lead inventory decreased by 900 mt to 277,325 mt; SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions edged up.

Lead Price Forecast for Today:

In April, the lead-acid battery market entered the traditional consumption off-season, with some medium and large enterprises announcing production cut plans, weakening procurement demand for lead ingots. Meanwhile, this week entered the delivery week, and lead ingot social warehouse inventory increased WoW; coupled with continued inflows of imported lead ingots into China in April, market circulating supply was ample, which was bearish for lead prices.

Data Source Statement: Data other than public information is SMM processed data based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.