Chile's February Copper Production Diverged, Overnight LME Copper and SHFE Copper Both Closed Higher [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

2026.4.13 Monday

Futures: Last Friday evening, LME copper opened at $12,744/mt, dipping to $12,642/mt early in the session before the price center fluctuated upward to touch $12,928/mt, then fluctuated downward to finally close at $12,857/mt, up 1.27%. Trading volume reached 22,000 lots, and open interest stood at 293,000 lots, down 4,028 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing positions. Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 99,200 yuan/mt, fluctuated upward early in the session to touch 99,750 yuan/mt, then the price center gradually shifted lower to test 99,090 yuan/mt, before swinging wildly to finally close at 99,310 yuan/mt, up 1.04%. Trading volume reached 45,000 lots, and open interest stood at 171,700 lots, down 2,724 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing positions.

[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary] News:

(1) On April 10 (Friday), data released by Chile's copper commission Cochilco showed that Chile's state-owned copper company Codelco's copper production in February this year fell 9.8% YoY to 88,500 mt. BHP's Escondida copper mine saw production decline 7.4% to 105,000 mt. The mine is the world's largest copper mine. Collahuasi, a large copper mine jointly operated by Glencore and Anglo American, saw production increase 56.5% to 26,600 mt.

Spot:

(1) Shanghai: On April 10, SMM #1 copper cathode spot premiums against the front-month 2604 contract were quoted at a premium of 10-70 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 40 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SMM #1 copper cathode prices were 98,130-98,450 yuan/mt. In the morning session, the SHFE copper 2604 contract moved sideways before rising and then pulling back. The opening price was 97,960 yuan/mt. After a slight decline, prices moved sideways, then quickly rose to 98,410 yuan/mt, fluctuating between 98,300-98,400 yuan/mt. Prices then pulled back, fluctuating between 98,100-98,300 yuan/mt, before rising again to touch 98,480 yuan/mt. Prices pulled back slightly toward the close, with a closing price of 98,330 yuan/mt. The inter-month Contango price spread ranged from 120-50 yuan/mt, and the SHFE copper front-month import profit margin ranged from a profit of 130 yuan/mt to a profit of 210 yuan/mt. Looking ahead, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to maintain a relatively strong tone. From a delivery perspective, this week is the last trading week for the SHFE copper 2604 contract. The inter-month Contango price spread widened slightly, and under the contango structure, suppliers' willingness to hold positions for delivery strengthened, with low willingness to sell spot cargo at low prices, providing strong support for spot premiums. Demand side, after copper prices rose, orders from some downstream processing enterprises may have declined slightly, but existing orders and production schedules remained generally stable, with just-in-time procurement continuing. From a regional structure perspective, available spot cargo in Jiangsu remained tight, with some downstream enterprises reporting difficulties in spot procurement, further supporting spot premiums. Overall, driven by delivery expectations, the inter-month spread structure, and tight regional supply, spot premiums against the SHFE copper 2604 contract are expected to remain at a premium today.

(2) Guangdong: On April 10, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot premiums against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 200 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 130 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 70 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 98,405 yuan/mt, up 785 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of SX-EW copper was 98,310 yuan/mt, up 785 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, as copper prices rose, downstream restocking appetite was weaker than the previous day, and overall trading activity was moderate.

(3) Imported copper: On April 10, the average warrant price rose $3/mt from the previous trading day to $74/mt (price range $68-78/mt). The average B/L price rose $4/mt from the previous trading day to $69/mt (price range $64-74/mt). The average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price rose $3/mt from the previous trading day to $40/mt (price range $34-46/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving from mid-April to early May.

(4) Secondary copper: On April 10 at 11:30, the futures closing price was 98,420 yuan/mt, up 690 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium was 40 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. On April 10, copper scrap prices rose 200 yuan/mt MoM. The copper scrap sales sentiment index rose to 2.55, and the procurement sentiment index rose to 2.32. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 627 yuan/mt, up 488 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,510 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, as copper prices surged, many copper scrap suppliers actively made shipments. However, downstream secondary copper rod enterprises or scrap-derived copper anode enterprises were reluctant to purchase excessively due to insufficient invoices. Additionally, many procurement managers believed that the Middle East situation remained unstable and copper prices could pull back at any time, resulting in inactive intraday trading.

Prices: On the macro front, expectations of US-Iran negotiations pushed copper prices higher, but the talks failed to reach a consensus. Trump announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, interception of oil revenues linked to Iran, and threatened to clear Iranian mines. Although Iran allowed non-military vessels to pass, it rejected three major US demands including "equal sharing of strait interests." Diplomatic channels remained open, but Iran stated that the US changed conditions as an agreement was nearing completion. Combined with Israel's preparations for another military strike against Iran, market concerns over the Iran situation escalated. Domestically, March CPI rose 1.0% YoY, and PPI turned from decline to growth YoY, with improving demand data supporting copper prices. Fundamentals side, supply side, imported copper continued to arrive, while domestic copper arrivals decreased due to maintenance. Suppliers held prices firm and held back from selling, making low-priced cargo hard to find in the market. Demand side, with copper prices fluctuating at highs, downstream enterprises only maintained just-in-time procurement, but overall demand resilience remained relatively strong. Overall, copper prices are expected to remain in the doldrums today.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make prudent decisions and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.]