SHFE Lead Fluctuated Downward in Night Session, Closing with a Small Bearish Candle; LME Lead Rose First Then Fell, Closing Slightly Lower [SMM Lead Morning Brief]

SMM April 9 update:

Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,949/mt. During the Asian session, prices fluctuated upward, touching a high of $1,962.5/mt. Entering the European session, lead prices shifted to a downward fluctuation, and despite brief rebounds, upside momentum was limited. Prices continued to weaken during the evening session, dipping to a low of $1,940/mt before rebounding slightly at the close, ultimately settling at $1,947.5/mt, up $8.5/mt or 0.44%.

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,805 yuan/mt. After a brief pullback at the start, prices fluctuated higher, touching a high of 16,825 yuan/mt, then moved sideways within the 16,785–16,810 yuan/mt range. During the midnight session, lead prices fluctuated downward, dipping to a low of 16,745 yuan/mt before rebounding slightly at the close, ultimately settling at 16,765 yuan/mt, posting a bearish candlestick, down 35 yuan/mt or 0.21%.

Supply side, social inventory of lead ingots across five regions in China saw a slight inventory buildup. Secondary lead enterprises, constrained by profits, saw production resumption progress fall short of expectations. Some smelters cut production slightly this week due to insufficient raw material inventory. Meanwhile, some smelters that resumed production in mid-to-late March were still in the capacity ramp-up stage, presenting a mixed picture on the supply side. Demand side, lead prices fluctuating at highs suppressed downstream purchase willingness, with strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. High-priced spot cargo in the spot market saw sluggish transactions, and some premium-priced products attracted little interest. SHFE lead is expected to maintain a range-bound consolidation pattern in the near term.