Center of the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Moves Lower, Transactions Slightly Softened Amid Structural Divergence in End-Use Demand [SMM Tin Midday Review]

On the morning of March 13, 2026, the most-traded SHFE tin contract briefly edged higher before sliding rapidly, then fluctuated around 385,000 yuan/mt. It closed at 385,480 yuan/mt at midday, down 1.22%. SHFE and LME fell in tandem; LME three-month tin was provisionally quoted at $49,000/mt, down 0.47%.

Against the backdrop of geopolitical developments and liquidity transmission dynamics across the commodities market, support for the overall metals complex was relatively weak, while the macro perspective temporarily returned to calm. Downstream, the market expected global mobile phone shipments in 2026 to decline by 8%-13%, with mid-end models hit the hardest; this expectation will affect downstream solder consumption. Meanwhile, orders for AI and smart wearables increased somewhat, and end-use demand was gradually shifting toward high-precision and high-performance applications, but tin consumption per unit in such applications is limited compared with traditional soldering tin. In addition, ongoing penetration of low-end electronics in markets such as Southeast Asia and India, as well as disruptions to downstream production schedules caused by ex-China memory chip shortages and price increases, were transmitted to the tin market, leaving total orders in the solder market currently somewhat under pressure.

Spot side, when futures fell today to the low range of 380,000 yuan/mt, market deals followed up to some extent. The market was currently in stalemate, with divergent expectations for the outlook; transactions were somewhat cautious, mainly involving small-volume buying on dips.

With the market currently lacking fresh macro catalysts, expectations were that the center of tin price fluctuations will gradually tilt toward actual supply and demand across the industry chain. Although there is support on the downside from supply disruptions and development prospects, upside momentum is insufficient, and prices may remain in the doldrums in a pattern where the center slowly moves lower amid fluctuations.