SMM Tin Morning Update on March 6, 2026:
Futures: After opening the night session with a slight decline, the most-traded SHFE tin contract fluctuated and rebounded, closing at 394,100 yuan/mt, down 1.59%.
Macro: (1) A document showed that US officials were discussing a new regulatory framework for exports of AI chips and were considering requiring foreign countries, when obtaining licenses for large volumes of chip exports, to invest in US AI data centers or provide security assurances. The US was considering categorizing countries seeking US AI chips into four tiers; obtaining more than 200,000 US AI chips may require investment in US AI data centers or enhanced security measures. These rules have not been finalized and may change. This marked the first attempt to regulate the supply of AI chips to US allies and partners since the Trump administration repealed its predecessor’s “AI diffusion rules.” (2) According to foreign media citing informed sources, US officials had drafted proposed regulations intended to restrict global shipments of AI chips without US approval. The bill would grant Washington broad authority to decide whether other countries can build, and under what conditions, facilities used to train and run AI models. The proposed regulations would require enterprises to apply to the US for licenses before exporting nearly all AI accelerators produced by companies such as Nvidia and AMD. This would expand the current controls covering about 40 countries to a global scope. President Trump has repeatedly stated that he wants the world to use US AI, and the draft is not intended to ban Nvidia’s exports. Instead, the regulations would position the US government as the “gatekeeper” of the AI industry: enterprises (and, in some cases, their home-country governments) must obtain approval from the US Department of Commerce before purchasing accelerators.
Fundamentals: (1) Supply: In March, most smelters were expected to gradually resume production and operations, ending their holiday status. (2) Demand: Downstream purchasing was relatively cautious. Downstream enterprises were expected to gradually resume production and operations, but order conditions were mediocre.
Spot market: Yesterday, futures again rose above the 400,000 yuan/mt threshold, and downstream enterprises’ willingness to purchase cooled markedly. Compared with the trading sentiment earlier this week, when restocking was concentrated on dips, the spot market has returned to a wait-and-see stance as directional guidance from futures is currently lacking. The drawdown of 400 mt in exchange inventory also indirectly confirmed the market’s objective capacity to absorb supply during the earlier price pullback.
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