Silicon Metal Prices Under Pressure Amid Market Tug-of-War; Polysilicon Market Sentiment Remains Weak [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM News on March 4:

Silicon coal

Price: This week, silicon coal prices in a few regions edged down slightly, mainly reflected in a slight cut of 10 yuan/mt in quoted prices in Shaanxi, while other regions remained temporarily stable. Among them, the average price of non-caking silicon coal in Xinjiang was about 855 yuan/mt, the price range of caking silicon coal was about 1,300-1,650 yuan/mt, the average price of silicon coal in Inner Mongolia was about 1,260 yuan/mt, and in Gansu, the average price of silicon mixed coal was about 930 yuan/mt and granular coal about 1,050 yuan/mt.

Supply: As most coal-washing plants gradually resumed production, overall supply also increased slightly, but it was still mainly characterized by a produce based on sales model.

Demand: With the weekly operating rate of downstream silicon plants rising, demand for raw material also increased slightly, mainly driven by output increases at large plants.

Silicon metal

Price: Yesterday, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was at 9,000-9,200 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon was at 9,200-9,500 yuan/mt. Yesterday afternoon, silicon metal futures prices fluctuated sharply due to macro disruptions, with the most-traded contract’s intraday low falling below 8,200 yuan/mt and settling at 8,205 yuan/mt near the close. Quotes from some northern silicon enterprises were adjusted downward, but still did not match the price advantage of spot-futures traders, and downstream users mainly bought the dip.

Production:

According to SMM data, domestic silicon metal production in February fell 26.6 MoM and 5% YoY. After factoring in the impact of fewer days, the average daily production in February declined by around 19% MoM from January. With some capacity on the supply side resuming production in March, the average daily silicon metal production in March was expected to rise by about 13% MoM.

Inventory:

Social inventory: SMM statistics showed that as of February 26, social inventory of silicon metal in major regions totaled 560,000 mt, an increase of 3,000 mt from before the Chinese New Year (excluding Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, and other areas).

Silicone

Price

DMC: Yesterday’s transaction price was 14,100-14,300 yuan/mt, raised by 300 yuan/mt WoW. Stimulated by the price-hike sentiment, overall market trading activity picked up starting last Friday, and most midstream and downstream clients had already entered the market in a concentrated manner to procure.

D4: Yesterday’s quoted price was 14,200-15,000 yuan/mt, raised by 150 yuan/mt WoW.

107 silicone rubber: Yesterday’s quoted price was 14,500-15,100 yuan/mt, raised by 300 yuan/mt WoW.

Raw rubber: Yesterday’s quoted price was 14,900-15,300 yuan/mt, raised by 300 yuan/mt WoW.

Silicone oil: Yesterday’s quoted price was 15,500-16,100 yuan/mt, raised by 300 yuan/mt WoW.

Production:

As some monomer enterprises that previously underwent maintenance gradually resumed production, the overall operating rate this week increased slightly, but under the latest supervision of emissions-reduction policies, overall supply remained relatively controllable.

Inventory:

Against the backdrop of concentrated procurement by downstream and midstream clients ahead of the price increase, overall inventory at individual enterprises edged down slightly.

Polysilicon

Price:

N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 46-53 yuan/kg, and the polysilicon price index stood at 49.17 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices fell sharply recently, mainly pressured by wafer price cuts and the impact of related meetings. At present, as the wafer segment has yet to stop falling, market sentiment remained weak, and there may still be some downside room going forward.

Production

In March, some small enterprises currently had plans to resume operations, coupled with an increase in calendar days, and polysilicon production may see a certain increase.

Inventory:

This week, polysilicon inventory continued to rise. The current market was relatively chaotic; although transaction frequency recovered somewhat after the Chinese New Year, it remained sluggish, and inventory edged up slightly.

Wafer

Price

In the market, 18X wafer prices were 1.05-1.08 yuan/piece, 210RN wafer prices were 1.13-1.15 yuan/piece, and 210N wafer prices were 1.35-1.38 yuan/piece. Recently, as raw material costs declined, wafer selling prices were adjusted downward accordingly, and the trend of strengthening cell demand had not yet been transmitted to wafer prices.

Production

In March, wafer production increased by about 10.71%, mainly due to an increase in calendar days. According to the survey, except for three enterprises that actually cut production, the rest mainly increased production. Toll processing orders increased, with a more concentrated trend.

Inventory

Wafer enterprise inventory began to decline. After cell enterprises finalized their March production schedule, demand was stronger than supply, shifting the wafer segment toward destocking.

High-Purity Quartz Sand

Price

Current domestic inner-layer sand prices were 55,000-60,000 yuan/mt, mid-layer sand prices were 20,000-30,000 yuan/mt, and outer-layer sand prices were 15,000-20,000 yuan/mt. Imported high-purity quartz sand prices were 74,000-76,000 yuan/mt. The price of 33-inch quartz crucibles was 6,000-6,200 yuan/piece, and the price of 36-inch quartz crucibles was 7,000-7,400 yuan/piece. Overall prices remained stable recently.

Production

In February, quartz sand enterprises’ planned production maintained expectations of a slight decrease, and domestic high-purity quartz sand enterprises implemented production cuts and formulated production plans to match wafer demand.

Inventory

In early 2026, crucible enterprises made reasonable purchases based on wafers’ planned production, and quartz sand inventory levels continued to increase.