Last week, the tin market showed a pattern of wide swings at high levels with strong macro disturbances [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary on March 2, 2026

Last week, the tin market experienced wide swings at highs, with both domestic and overseas prices influenced by multiple factors. During the Chinese New Year holiday, LME tin fluctuated at highs. After the SHFE tin resumed trading, the price of the most-traded contract rose from 384,220 yuan/mt on February 24 to 432,700 yuan/mt on February 27, boosted by a recovery in macro sentiment, a weaker US dollar, and supply concerns triggered by the conflict in Myanmar. However, the spot market remained sluggish due to high prices. From a supply and demand fundamentals perspective, the supply side maintained a tight balance. In February, smelters in China generally suspended operations for maintenance during the Chinese New Year, leading to a decline in tin ingot production. Overseas, Indonesia's exports were delayed due to adjustments in the RKAB approval system, resulting in a MoM decline in January but a significant increase in shipments to China. Imports of ore from Myanmar are expected to recover, though geopolitical risks persist. On the demand side, recovery has been slow. Post-holiday, the resumption pace of downstream solder and electronics enterprises was gradual, with most planning to return to work between February 26 and March 3. The current high prices have continuously suppressed stockpiling intentions, with many enterprises consuming pre-holiday inventories. Actual procurement demand in the market has yet to effectively pick up, with tight spot circulation coexisting with high warrant levels. Although technological breakthroughs in the semiconductor sector inject long-term demand momentum, short-term spot support is weak. It is expected that SHFE tin prices will hover at highs in the short term, facing resistance from high prices that inhibit actual consumption and support from tight mine supply and low inventory. Investors need to closely monitor the actual resumption progress of downstream enterprises, the intensity of restocking demand, and the substantive developments in policies and events in Indonesia and Myanmar.