[SMM Analysis] Review and Post-Holiday Outlook of the SiMn Market During the 2026 Chinese New Year Holiday

During the 2026 Chinese New Year holiday, the silicon manganese market operated steadily overall, with spot prices maintaining a sideways movement. The operating rate of alloy plants experienced relatively small fluctuations, and the market as a whole presented a pattern of "weak supply-demand balance with prominent cost support."

Looking back

at the 2026 Chinese New Year holiday period, silicon manganese prices remained stable, and the operating fluctuations of alloy plants were relatively small.

I. Cost Side
The manganese ore market continued to hold up well, serving as the core support on the cost side. Currently, high-grade oxide ore inventory at Tianjin Port is at medium to low levels. Meanwhile, manganese ore offers from overseas miners remain firm, and manganese ore prices are expected to maintain strong resilience in the short term.

Regional divergence in power costs is significant, becoming a key factor affecting the competitiveness of alloy plants in different production areas. Electricity prices in northern production areas are expected to remain low, providing relatively prominent cost advantages. However, most southern production areas have no significant downside room for electricity prices. Among them, Guizhou Province implements tiered electricity prices, while Guangxi production areas have adjusted their electricity fee trading model, abolishing the peak-flat-valley pricing method. Subsequent electricity fees are highly likely to increase, further adding to the production cost pressure for local alloy plants and potentially weakening regional competitiveness.

The coking coal and coke markets overall showed a weak and stable trend, having a relatively mild impact on silicon manganese costs. During the holiday, spot prices for coking coal and coke primarily operated steadily, with market supply and demand in a weak balance. This did not create significant upward or downward pressure on silicon manganese costs, and the overall performance was relatively stable.

II. Demand Side
Downstream demand for silicon manganese mainly comes from steel mills, with HBIS Group being a major consumer and also a market price benchmark. However, in February, HBIS Group did not issue a clear silicon manganese tender announcement. Affected by this, overall market sentiment during the Chinese New Year holiday leaned towards wait-and-see regarding shipments.

Outlook

I. Cost side, for manganese ore, strong support from overseas markets and the pattern of medium-to-low inventories at domestic ports are difficult to change in the short term, and prices will continue to hold up well. For electricity, there are clear expectations for price increases in some production areas in Inner Mongolia and southern China, further increasing power costs. Coke prices are expected to fluctuate at highs. Combined with the strong support from manganese ore, the comprehensive cost of silicon manganese is expected to continue rising after the holiday.

II. Supply side, pressure from the silicon manganese supply side will be further released, significantly inhibiting price increases. On one hand, inventory accumulation was already observed in alloy plants in Ningxia before the holiday, creating substantial pressure for inventory digestion after the holiday. On the other hand, there are expectations for individual alloy plants in Inner Mongolia to start production or resume operations. Subsequent release of silicon manganese capacity will increase somewhat, and supply-side pressure will gradually become prominent, which is expected to constrain price increases.

Overall, strong support from the cost side determines that the downside room for silicon manganese prices is limited, while pressure from the supply side inhibits upward momentum. The silicon manganese market will maintain a fluctuating trend. Future prices require close attention to the ignition of new silicon manganese capacity, fluctuations in electricity prices in major production areas, and the tender pricing of mainstream steel mills.