[SMM Analysis] Nickel Prices Swing as Indonesian Targets and Market Sentiment Drive Volatility

Published: Feb 13, 2026 16:09

Save

Nickel prices experienced wild swings WoW as market expectations materialized. From the beginning to mid-week, Indonesia's ESDM Minister revealed that the 2026 nickel ore RKAB production target was set at 260-270 million mt, aligning with previous market expectations. The continuous positive developments boosted market sentiment, driving nickel prices higher in both domestic and overseas markets. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract once again broke through the 140,000 yuan/mt mark, while LME nickel prices returned above $18,000/mt. However, a significant technical pullback occurred on Friday (the last trading day before the Chinese New Year holiday). In the spot market, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 141,290 yuan/mt this week, up 4,300 yuan/mt WoW. The average premium for Jinchuan nickel was 9,300 yuan/mt WoW, down 650 yuan/mt WoW. The premiums and discounts for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel remained stable within the range of -400-400 yuan/mt. Most end-users and traders had already entered the holiday early, resulting in a relatively quiet spot market with participants mostly adopting a wait-and-see approach.

On the macro front, the US Fed Chairman attended a hearing at the Senate Banking Committee this week, indicating an intention to slow the pace of balance sheet reduction while reiterating that the inflation rate remains above the long-term 2% target, suggesting that interest rates may remain unchanged for a longer period. This stance moderated the previous hawkish expectations following Wash's nomination, leading to a pullback in the US dollar index from highs. Geopolitically, on February 12, Trump stated that the US "must" reach an agreement with Iran, hoping to reach a consensus in "about a month." Domestic macro policies maintained an active tone. On Friday, the People's Bank of China conducted 100 billion yuan in 6-month (182-day) one-off reverse repo operations, aiming to maintain reasonably ample liquidity in the banking system.

Inventory side, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was around 2,200 mt this week, flat WoW. Domestic social inventory was approximately 75,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of about 1,300 mt WoW.

At the current stage, expectations regarding Indonesian policy alone cannot support a sustained rise in nickel prices. The support level around 130,000 yuan/mt for SHFE nickel shows strong resilience due to Indonesia's quota tightening policies, while the resistance above 145,000 yuan/mt remains significant due to high inventory and weak demand. After the Chinese New Year holiday, nickel prices are expected to enter a phase of wide swings at high levels, with the core trading range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract projected at 130,000-145,000 yuan/mt. Key factors to watch include whether the anticipated supply contraction materializes as expected after the holiday, as well as the pace of downstream work resumption and the strength of restocking demand.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

15 hours ago

[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] Fu'an Aims for $246B in Stainless Steel Output by 2026, Advances 600,000-Ton CR Project

According to the Fu'an City Development and Reform Bureau, as outlined in its 2026 economic and social development plan released on March 6, the city is set to continuously consolidate its leading advantage in the stainless steel new materials industry. A key focus for the year is accelerating the construction and implementation of major downstream projects, specifically highlighting Runhengxin's 600,000-ton stainless steel cold-rolling project and a new titanium alloy materials manufacturing industrial park. Through these strategic capacity expansions, Fu'an aims to push the total output value of its stainless steel new materials industry to 246 billion RMB in 2026, targeting a year-on-year growth rate of over 5%.

15 hours ago

[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] Fujian Tsingshan's Stainless Steel Deep Processing Project Receives Construction Permit

According to the Zhouning County Natural Resources Bureau, the Fujian Tsingshan Special Materials stainless steel deep processing project officially received its construction engineering planning permit on February 14, 2026. The major facility, covering a land area of over 207,700 square meters with a total construction area of approximately 156,482 square meters, marks a significant step forward in capacity expansion for the Tsingshan-affiliated entity in Fujian province, further solidifying its downstream processing footprint.

15 hours ago

[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] EU Fastener Distributors Warn CBAM Acts as Penalty Tariff; Import Costs Surge Up to 50%

According to EFDA, the CBAM is severely penalizing importers of screws, nuts, and other fasteners, with costs reportedly surging by 30% to 50% since the mechanism took full effect in January 2026. The EFDA attributes this drastic cost increase to structural failures by the European Commission, specifically the absence of a functioning verification system that forces importers to rely on exorbitantly high default emissions values rather than actual data. This issue is heavily compounded by a severe shortage of certified verifiers, whose accreditation is delayed until summer 2027. Warning that these bureaucratic complexities are threatening the global competitiveness of European end products like automobiles and machinery.

15 hours ago