February 12, 2026 SMM Tin Morning Brief:
Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2603) opened slightly higher and fluctuated with a pullback during the night session, closing at 391,330 yuan/mt, up 0.89%.
Macro: (1) The Sichuan Provincial Development and Reform Commission and Department of Finance issued a notice on the issuance of the "Sichuan Province 2026 Measures for Implementing Large-Scale Equipment Renewal and Consumer Goods Trade-in Policies." The notice mentioned support for vehicle replacement and renewal. In 2026, a one-time subsidy will be provided to individual consumers who sell passenger cars registered under their names and purchase passenger NEVs included in the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's "Catalog of NEV Models Eligible for Vehicle Purchase Tax Reduction and Exemption," or passenger cars with fuel engines of 2.0 liters or below. For trade-ins meeting the above conditions for NEVs, a subsidy of 8% of the new car's selling price will be provided, with a maximum subsidy amount of 15,000 yuan; for trade-ins meeting the above conditions for fuel-powered passenger cars, a subsidy of 6% of the new car's selling price will be provided, with a maximum subsidy amount of 13,000 yuan. (2) Cisco (CSCO.O), the world's largest computer networking and internet equipment manufacturer, issued an optimistic quarterly performance forecast. This indicates the company is attracting a large number of clients building artificial intelligence systems. The company stated in an announcement that revenue for the fiscal quarter ending in April is expected to reach $15.4 billion to $15.6 billion, exceeding Wall Street's average expectation of $15.2 billion. Cisco has been adjusting its chips and networking equipment to handle the massive amounts of information required by AI data centers. Analyst Woo Jin Ho said, "AI remains a strong incremental sales driver. Major data center operators continue to expand the deployment of AI infrastructure, thereby driving demand for higher-capacity networks." Last year, Cisco's stock price rose 30%.
Fundamentals: (1) Supply side: Most smelters are expected to gradually halt production for maintenance in February, entering the Chinese New Year holiday. (2) Demand side: Downstream procurement remains cautious, pre-holiday restocking is largely complete, and downstream enterprises will gradually begin production halts for the break.
Spot market: As the Chinese New Year approaches, logistics are largely stagnant, and various segments of the industry chain are generally entering the holiday period.
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