Copper Prices Fell in Early Trading, Stimulating Downstream Restocking Sentiment, Spot Premiums/Discounts Rose [SMM North China Spot Copper]

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, spot discounts for SHFE copper are expected to remain under pressure. Although procurement and sales sentiment saw a slight rebound intraday, with some downstream enterprises resuming production and gradually entering the market for inquiries and purchases, the overall market remains constrained by sustained supply-side increases. From a market structure perspective, the contango spread between nearby futures contracts remains in the range of 420–350 yuan/mt, and suppliers' willingness to ship to delivery warehouses continues, further diverting spot liquidity. Meanwhile, both imported and domestic copper arrivals persist, while downstream consumption has not fully resumed production, leading to a supply-demand mismatch that continues to drive social inventory buildup. According to SMM, social inventory of copper cathode in mainstream domestic regions continues its post-holiday accumulation trend, with the total reaching 531,700 mt, a historically high level. Additionally, the release of unmatched delivery warrants will further pressure spot premiums and discounts. Overall, the market is in the early stages of post-holiday supply-demand rebalancing, and with supply-side pressures dominating, spot discounts are expected to remain under pressure tomorrow.

Today, the purchasing sentiment index for copper cathode in the Henan region was reported at 1.07, showing an increase compared to yesterday. However, overall purchasing sentiment still struggles to see significant improvement, with the overall market atmosphere remaining relatively weak.