Vale lowers its forecast for iron ore production in 2026

Published: Dec 8, 2025 10:49
The company expects to produce 335-345 million tons next year

The company expects to produce 335-345 million tons next year

Brazilian mining company Vale has lowered its forecast for iron ore production in 2026 to 335-345 million tons, according to a company statement.

The previous forecast was 340-360 million tons. This year, the company expects production to reach approximately 335 million tons.

Sinter production is expected to reach 31 million tons in 2025, 30-34 million tons in 2026, and grow to 60-70 million tons by 2030.

As for sales, the volume of medium-grade Carajás ore is forecast to reach 33 million tons in 2025 and 50 million tons in 2026. Sales of PFC (Pellet Feed China) products will reach 26 million tons this year and 40 million tons next year.

As a reminder, at the end of 2024, Vale achieved its highest iron ore production level since 2018 – 327.67 million tons, which is 2% more than a year earlier. Pellet production increased by 1.2% y/y – to 36.89 million tons.

As reported by GMK Center, CEO Gustavo Pimenta said that Vale is preparing to meet the growing demand for iron ore from India, which could double its steel production by the end of the decade.

In his opinion, increased sales to this country and other Asian markets will help compensate for stagnant demand from China, where steel production has remained at around 1 billion tons in recent years and may decline slightly. India will import approximately 10 million tons of Vale ore in 2025.

Source: https://gmk.center/en/news/vale-lowers-its-forecast-for-iron-ore-production-in-2026/

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn
For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn
Related News
East China Steel Mill Ferromolybdenum Tender Priced at 313,500, Continued Attention
44 mins ago
East China Steel Mill Ferromolybdenum Tender Priced at 313,500, Continued Attention
Read More
East China Steel Mill Ferromolybdenum Tender Priced at 313,500, Continued Attention
East China Steel Mill Ferromolybdenum Tender Priced at 313,500, Continued Attention
[Molybdenum News] SMM June 9 news: On June 8, a steel mill in east China set a ferro-molybdenum tender price of 313,500 yuan/mt by acceptance for 66 mt. Today, SMM will continue to monitor the bid opening prices of steel mills in Jiangsu, Shandong and other places.
44 mins ago
6.8 SMM Global Steel Daily Report
15 hours ago
6.8 SMM Global Steel Daily Report
Read More
6.8 SMM Global Steel Daily Report
6.8 SMM Global Steel Daily Report
SMM News Flash:  [Steel Billet] Today, billet export offers weakened, with offers at USD 470–474/t. According to feedback from several traders, the North African market is facing pressure from rising port and freight costs, but the overall impact remains limited. Market inquiries were relatively active, mainly from customers in South Asia and the Middle East. Recently, low-priced export billet transactions were concluded. [Thailand] Currently, the DDP price for cold-rolled substrate galvanizing in Thailand is 28.75 THB/kg. According to SMM’s latest survey, affected by weak procurement demand during the off-season, orders at local processing centers have recently shown a weakening trend, with actual transaction performance remaining weak. It is expected that prices will remain under pressure in the near term, and significant improvement in short-term trading will be difficult to see, pending the release of updated price adjustments by steel mills.
15 hours ago
【SMM Steel】Jubilee restores Roan concentrator operations in Zambia
16 hours ago
【SMM Steel】Jubilee restores Roan concentrator operations in Zambia
Read More
【SMM Steel】Jubilee restores Roan concentrator operations in Zambia
【SMM Steel】Jubilee restores Roan concentrator operations in Zambia
【SMM Steel】Jubilee Metals Group has resumed full capacity at its Roan concentrator in Ndola Zambia targeting monthly run-of-mine throughput of 30000 tonnes following scheduled annual maintenance. Upgrades include an expanded copper oxide flotation circuit designed to boost recovery efficiency by 5% offsetting higher transport costs. Jubilee also commissioned a new fine copper concentrate dewatering facility to manage a stream representing about 25% of Roan's feedstock copper with material transported to its Sable refinery in Kabwe. The company is also evaluating an additional DMS circuit to potentially expand throughput.
16 hours ago
Vale lowers its forecast for iron ore production in 2026 - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)