Silicon metal supply maintains an increasing trend, while there is still uncertainty regarding the operation of polysilicon enterprises [SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM News on June 18:

Silicon Coal

Prices: This week, silicon coal prices remained in the doldrums. Although the coking coal futures market performed well recently, spot prices did not actually follow suit, and there was significant regional differentiation. Last week, spot coking coal prices decreased in some regions, leading to synchronous adjustments in silicon coal prices. However, prices remained unchanged in other regions, with market participants adopting a wait-and-see attitude. Currently, the average price of non-caking silicon coal in Xinjiang is 710 yuan/mt, caking silicon coal in Xinjiang is 1,250 yuan/mt, silicon blended coal in Gansu is 840 yuan/mt, granular coal is 960 yuan/mt, silicon blended coal in Ningxia is 900 yuan/mt, granular coal is 1,140 yuan/mt, and granular coal (with 5-6% ash content) is 1,310 yuan/mt.

Supply: Supply remains primarily on a need-based basis. Due to producers' lack of confidence in the market, they generally do not build up inventory to reduce risks, instead focusing on production based on orders.

Demand: As downstream demand remains in a state of contraction, overall demand is weak. Therefore, procurement continues to be dominated by small, just-in-time restocking orders.

Silicon Metal

Prices: The mainstream spot prices of silicon metal remained stable. Yesterday, SMM reported that the price of oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was in the range of 8,000-8,300 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous day. According to GFEX data, the total number of silicon metal warrants yesterday was 56,823 lots, a decrease of 1,097 lots from the previous day. The futures price of silicon metal continued to remain low, and the volume of warrants continued to decrease. Recently, the mainstream spot prices of silicon metal have remained stable.

Production:

In June, the production of silicon metal increased as large plants in Xinjiang gradually ramped up production and marginal increases were seen in the southwest region.

Inventory:

Social Inventory: SMM statistics show that the total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions was 572,000 mt on June 12, a decrease of 15,000 mt WoW. Among this, social general warehouses held 133,000 mt, a decrease of 2,000 mt WoW, and social delivery warehouses held 439,000 mt (including unregistered warrants and spot portions), a decrease of 13,000 mt WoW. (Excluding regions such as Inner Mongolia and Gansu)

Silicone

Prices

DMC: Currently quoted at 10,400-10,900 yuan/mt. This week, DMC transaction prices in some domestic regions continued to fall, with some transaction prices approaching the 10,000 yuan/mt mark, and cost support significantly decreased.

D4: Currently quoted at 11,100-12,000 yuan/mt. This week, D4 transaction prices dropped slightly.

107 Silicone Rubber: Currently quoted at 11,600-12,100 yuan/mt. This week, the price of 107 silicone rubber fell due to weak end-use demand and decreased cost support.

Raw Silicone Rubber: Currently quoted at 12,300-12,800 yuan/mt. This week, the price of raw silicone rubber remained temporarily stable.

Silicone Oil: Current quotes range from 13,500 yuan/mt to 13,800 yuan/mt. This week, silicone oil prices dropped slightly WoW, with a narrower transaction range.

Production:

Recently, the operating rates of monomer enterprises have increased WoW, and maintenance units in North China are expected to resume production.

Inventory:

This week, the inventory levels of monomer enterprises decreased slightly WoW, and the effect of enterprises offering discounts to destock has gradually emerged.

Polysilicon

Price

Yesterday, the mainstream transaction prices of N-type recharging polysilicon were 34-37 yuan/kg, and the N-type polysilicon price index was 34.11 yuan/kg. Currently, there is still some market competition, with top-tier manufacturers still offering quotes around 36 yuan/kg. The overall trend is still significantly influenced by subsequent operating rates.

Production

The latest production in June is expected to increase to around 101,000 mt. Currently, there is some competition regarding the resumption of production among top polysilicon enterprises, and the actions of these enterprises have a significant impact.

Inventory

There is still significant pressure on polysilicon inventory, with large disparities among enterprises. Overall inventory has declined slightly due to order signing in the past two weeks.

Wafer

Price

The market prices for N-type 18X wafers are 0.9-0.92 yuan/piece, and for N-type 210RN wafers, they are 1.05-1.1 yuan/piece. Wafer prices are largely stable, with some minor fluctuations. After SNEC, some orders are still under negotiation, and there is competition between upstream and downstream parties around the 0.9 yuan price point.

Production

Global wafer production in June is expected to be around 58GW. Although there is a possibility of production cuts by top-tier enterprises in the future, the overall downside room is limited.

Inventory

Recently, market transactions have remained relatively limited, with a cautious purchasing mindset. Inventory levels are largely stable, with some minor fluctuations.

High-Purity Quartz Sand

Price

Currently, the domestic prices for inner-layer sand are 60,000-68,000 yuan/mt, for middle-layer sand are 31,000-42,000 yuan/mt, and for outer-layer sand are 17,000-24,000 yuan/mt. This week, domestic quartz sand prices have remained stable for the time being. However, the prices of downstream crucibles have dropped slightly, and it is expected that the desire to bargain down prices for quartz sand purchases will continue to increase.

Production

This week, the operating rates of quartz sand production have remained largely stable, and new overseas quartz sand capacity is expected to be released in the future.

Inventory

This week, the inventory levels of sand enterprises have remained stable for the time being, with some customers making appropriate purchases based on immediate needs.

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