The price of SHFE tin showed a fluctuating rebound pattern. The trading in the spot market for tin ingots was relatively mediocre. [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Published: Apr 21, 2025 11:09
SMM Tin Midday Review: SHFE Tin Prices Showed a Volatile Rebound, Spot Tin Ingot Market Transactions Were Mediocre. As of the midday session (11:30), the most-traded SHFE tin 2505 contract was quoted at 259,700 yuan/mt, up 1.16% from the previous trading day's settlement price. During the session, the price hit a high of 259,880 yuan/mt and a low of 256,240 yuan/mt, showing a volatile rebound pattern. Open interest slightly decreased, indicating that the game between bulls and bears over policies and supply-demand imbalances is still intensifying.

Midday Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Futures Contract on April 21, 2025

As of midday today (11:30), the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2505) was quoted at 259,700 yuan/mt, up 1.16% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The intraday high reached 259,880 yuan/mt, while the low touched 256,240 yuan/mt, showing a volatile rebound pattern. Open interest slightly decreased, indicating that the game between bulls and bears over policies and supply-demand imbalances is intensifying.

US Fed Policy Game: Trump publicly criticized Fed Chairman Powell for "slow rate hikes" and hinted at possible intervention in monetary policy independence. The US dollar index experienced increased volatility, but risk-off sentiment continued to suppress the performance of risk assets.

Domestic Policy Countermeasures: The PBOC injected a net 222 billion yuan of liquidity on April 18, coupled with the MIIT's growth stabilization plans for the machinery and automotive industries, partially alleviating market concerns over liquidity and end-use demand.

The Bisie tin mine in the DRC announced a phased resumption of production, easing earlier concerns over supply disruptions caused by armed conflicts.

Domestic Yinman Mining resumed production on April 16 after an accident-related shutdown, but uncertainties remain regarding the mining ban policy in Myanmar's Wa State. Tin concentrate TCs remain low, and expectations for smelting production cuts persist.

Short-Term Trends: After rebounding to around 258,000 yuan/mt during midday, prices faced resistance. Technically, attention is focused on the resistance level at 258,700 yuan/mt and the support level at 256,000 yuan/mt. If the DRC's resumption progress exceeds expectations or US tariff policies escalate further, prices may test the 250,000 yuan/mt mark. Conversely, if domestic economic data (such as electricity consumption and industrial added value) exceed expectations, it could boost demand expectations.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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