Iron Ore Port Inventory Shifts from Increase to Decrease Ore Prices Continue to Grind at Bottom [SMM Brief Comment]

Published: Mar 21, 2025 17:10

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Today, the most-traded iron ore futures contract moved downwards after a higher opening and fluctuated downward throughout the day. The most-traded I2505 contract closed at 757.5, with a daily decline of 0.33%. Traders' willingness to sell was relatively low; as the weekend approached, inquiries from steel mills decreased, and some mills purchased as needed; the market transaction atmosphere was quiet. Mainstream transaction prices fell by 2-5 yuan/mt compared to yesterday. As of March 21, recent continuous declines in ore prices have intensified bearish sentiment, and purchase willingness has declined. Looking ahead to next week, both supply and demand for iron ore are expected to increase, but support is limited. However, considering the relatively small imbalance in the industry recently, the market's reaction to production limits and tariffs has weakened, and it is expected that ore prices may rebound slightly after bottoming out next week.

Today, the most-traded iron ore futures contract moved downwards after a higher opening and fluctuated downward throughout the day. The most-traded I2505 contract closed at 757.5, down 0.33% for the day. Traders' willingness to sell was average; as the weekend approached, steel mills inquired less, with some purchasing as needed; the market transaction atmosphere was quiet. In Shandong, the mainstream transaction prices of PB fines were around 760 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from yesterday; in Tangshan, the transaction prices of PB fines were around 770 yuan/mt, down 2-5 yuan/mt from yesterday. As of March 21, SMM data showed that the total inventory across 35 ports was 141.44 million mt, up 270,000 mt WoW, and up 1.75 million mt YoY. The daily average port pick-up volume of imported ore was 2.922 million mt, down 46,000 mt WoW, and up 100,000 mt YoY. Recently, ore prices have been continuously falling, intensifying the bearish sentiment in the market, and purchase willingness has declined. Looking ahead to next week, both supply and demand for iron ore are expected to increase. Support is limited. However, considering the relatively small imbalance in the industry recently, the market's reaction to production limits and tariffs has weakened, and it is expected that ore prices may rebound slightly after bottoming out next week.

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