Nickel Ore Imports Rose 25.68% MoM in February 2025 but Declined 8.49% YoY

Market rumors ahead of tomorrow’s presidential address suggest Indonesia may establish a specialized state agency to centralize strategic commodity exports, initially targeting CPO and coal, with minerals under discussion. Under the rumored framework, producers would bypass direct international sales and sell to this state trading entity, which would export globally and potentially capture a trading spread. While the official narrative focuses on curbing under-invoicing, securing state revenue, and retaining foreign exchange to defend the rupiah, the market treats this as a major policy risk.

The following table shows the ferrous and nonferrous metals movement on the SHFE and DCE on 19 May , 2026

Following three consecutive warning letters, Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has suspended more than 50 mineral and coal mining licenses (IUPs), including 34 nickel operations, for failing to submit their 2026 Work Plans and Budgets (RKAB). Tri Winarno, ESDM’s Director General of Minerals and Coal, stated on May 18 that the affected miners have been given a strict 90-day grace period to rectify their filings, after which non-compliance will lead to the permanent revocation of their mining licenses as the state tightens sector oversight.