【Phân tích SMM】Nguyên nhân nào đứng sau sự tăng mạnh của giá lithium trong đợt này?

The cobalt powder market remained weak this week, and actual transactions stayed thin. On the supply side, mainstream producers kept their offers within RMB 440,000‑460,000 per tonne, while some physical deal prices have dipped to RMB 430,000‑440,000 per tonne. More low‑price offers emerged among traders, further depressing market psychological price levels. Cobalt carbonate, the raw material, remained under price pressure. Some offers have fallen below RMB 200,000 per tonne. Market trading nearly stalled with no valid transaction references available. Downstream cemented carbide enterprises are constrained by end‑user orders, showing no acceleration in raw‑material consumption and maintaining slow purchasing rhythms. Apart from long‑term contract orders, spot‑deal volumes are relatively limited. In terms of market sentiment, most participants adopt a wait‑and‑see stance, generally believing that no notable market improvement will materialize in the short term.

The cobalt sulfate market stayed sluggish this week, and the deadlock between upstream and downstream participants remained unchanged. On the supply side, primary smelters using cobalt intermediates and MHP as feedstock kept their offers above RMB 80,000 per tonne backed by cost support. Major recyclers quoted at around a 5% discount to SMM’s low‑end price. A small number of sellers with strong shipping willingness have lowered offers to RMB 70,000‑73,000 per tonne, and isolated ultra‑low offers below RMB 70,000 per tonne have been heard. Demand stayed feeble, with downstream indicated purchase prices trending lower; some extreme inquiries have fallen below RMB 70,000 per tonne. In the short run, cobalt sulfate prices still face certain downward pressure. Market stabilization and recovery depend on the release of concentrated restocking demand from downstream sectors.

The cobalt‑intermediate market remained sluggish this week, with actual transactions staying limited. Recently, some miners have launched multiple tenders for cobalt intermediates. However, no real transactions were concluded due to substantial price‑expectation divergence between upstream and downstream parties. The indicative price for the latest tender stood at around USD 21‑21.5 per pound. Driven by persistent price weakness in cobalt salts and cobalt metal, downstream smelters and traders have further lowered their psychological price for raw materials to roughly USD 18‑19 per pound. A few enterprises can only accept offers as low as USD 17 per pound. The widening price gap against miners’ offers makes it difficult to close physical deals. In the short term, although miners intend to prop up prices, downstream demand provides insufficient support. Game‑playing between buyers and sellers continues. Price recovery hinges on the revival of real downstream demand.