SMM: The outlook for a full-scale resumption of domestic bauxite production remains unclear; ore prices may pick up slightly

According to data from June 28, the weekly port arrivals of bauxite at domestic ports totaled 4.1828 million mt, an increase of 808,400 mt from the previous week. The weekly shipments of bauxite from Guinea's main ports totaled 2.2573 million mt, an increase of 564,800 mt from the previous week. The weekly shipments of bauxite from Australia's main ports totaled 873,800 mt, a decrease of 484,800 mt from the previous week.

From the domestic port arrivals data, the weekly port arrivals of bauxite have rebounded for two consecutive weeks. Considering the time required for unloading at ports, and estimating the shipment time, the impact of the obstruction on bauxite shipments from Guinea in April has ended. However, looking at the port arrivals in June, it is unlikely that there will be a significant increase in bauxite imports in June.

Based on departure data, Guinea's weekly departures have rebounded for two consecutive weeks, and the previous disruptions affecting Guinea's bauxite shipments have significantly weakened. However, according to SMM survey, the impact of the rainy season in Guinea has gradually begun to show, and subsequent bauxite departures from Guinea may experience some fluctuations.

SMM Brief Comment

Currently, the outlook for a large-scale resumption of domestic bauxite production remains unclear. There is port demand in the spot market for imported bauxite, and in the short term, mainstream imported bauxite spot may remain in short supply, with prices likely to be supported. However, considering sluggish demand, it is expected that bauxite prices will pick up slightly in the short term.