SMM Aluminum Market Morning Comment (June 17)

On last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2407 contract opened at 20,510 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 20,525 yuan/mt and a low of 20,375 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,455 yuan/mt, down 110 yuan/mt, a decrease of 0.53%. The previous trading day, LME aluminum opened at $2,539/mt, reached a high of $2,552.5/mt and a low of $2,502/mt, and closed at $2,523/mt, down $21.5/mt, a decrease of 0.84%.

Summary: On the macro level, the US Fed's wavering stance on interest rate cuts and escalating regional conflicts provided support for gold and commodity prices. On the fundamentals, the arrival of the off-season, together with increasing overseas market frictions, has led to insufficient orders for aluminum processing enterprises and a reduction in operating rates. The supply-demand relationship in the domestic aluminum market is gradually weakening. In the short term, aluminum prices are under pressure, and are expected to hover around the current level.