SMM analysis of China lithium concentrate imports

In April, China's customs data showed import volume of lithium concentrate stood at 441,309 mt in physical content. The import volume of lithium concentrate rebounded, with a MoM growth of 10% compared to March. The import volume of lithium concentrate is expected to increase further in May and June with the continuous port arrivals of African lithium ore.

In April 2024, China's import volume of lithium concentrate was equivalent to about 39,393 mt LCE. The increase in port arrivals of lithium concentrate in April was significantly driven by the Q1 NEV market growth, resulting in increased demand for lithium salts and thus an increase in the import demand for lithium concentrate.

Imports from Australia, a major lithium producer, remained high, with approximately 254,584 mt in physical content in April, up 11% MoM; import volume from Zimbabwe was 92,396 mt in physical content, up 7% MoM; import volume from Nigeria was 29,328 mt in physical content, down 10% MoM. Considering the fluctuations in China's lithium concentrate imports in H1, Australia and Zimbabwe remain key factors affecting China's lithium import market.

Looking ahead, due to the increase in long-term contract cargo pick-up by lithium salt plants in H1, and the arrival of African spodumene ore in Q2, which was ordered at low prices earlier, the concentrated port arrivals of lithium ore in May are expected to allow the import volume to climb further. Additionally, some lithium salt plants are pessimistic about the lithium carbonate market later this year and have hedged heavily on the 2406 to 2409 contracts earlier, resulting in strong demand for overseas spodumene, driving the import volume of African lithium ores to remain high in Q2 and Q3.