Lead prices to remain rangebound at high levels

The macroeconomic data due this week mainly include China's annualised first quarter GDP, China's annualised total retail sales of consumer goods in March, China's annualised added value at large-scale industrial enterprises in March and retail sales in the US in March. The Federal Reserve will also release the Beige Book. Several senior officials of the Federal Reserve have stated that it is a foregone conclusion that there will be no interest rate cut in the near future; The US dollar index has continued to rise in the past month.

As for LME lead prices, driven by optimistic expectations for the global economy, funds going into the non-ferrous metal sector was the key factor bolstering lead prices last week. On fundamentals, LME lead inventories are at an 11-year high, and the imports of lead ingots remain in losses. These, coupled with the domestic and overseas off-season, will prevent inventory from falling in the short term. LME lead prices are expected to run at high levels between $2,115-2,220/mt in the near term.

As for SHFE lead, in April, lead smelters resumed production after maintenance, while the traditional off-season for lead-acid battery set in. Lead ingot inventories are set to accumulate, which will cap the upward trend of lead prices. On the other hand, the supply of lead concentrate and battery scrap is tight, and lead concentrate TCs have dropped to a historical low. In the short term, lead prices will consolidate at a high level. It is expected that the most active SHFE lead contract prices will run at 16,450-16,900 yuan/mt this week.

The spot prices are expected to move between 16,150-16,500 yuan/mt. In terms of primary lead, there was little change in the production of smelters from March to April. As the delivery of the SHFE front-month contract approached, there were not many lead ingots available. Most delivery brands were sold with premiums, while non-delivery brands were sold with discounts. The supply of battery scrap is tightening, lowering the raw material inventory of some smelters. Yet, the supply is expected to increase, and secondary refined lead will continue to be sold with discounts. In terms of lead consumption, some lead-acid battery companies reduced production due to the off-season in April. This, combined with the high lead prices, resulted in poor downstream purchasing enthusiasm.