SMM Aluminum Market Morning Comment (Apr 9)

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE 2405 aluminum contract opened at 20,250 yuan/mt, with the highest and lowest prices at 20,310 yuan/mt and 20,105 yuan/mt before closing at 20,200 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt or 0.02%. LME aluminum opened at $2,442/mt in the previous trading day, with its high and low at $2,470/mt and $2,426/mt respectively before closing at $2,459.5/mt, an increase of $8.5/mt or 0.35%.

Summary: On the macro front, the dollar fell by 0.15% on Monday, and the market focused on the March inflation data to be released on Wednesday. The domestic aluminum operating capacity was recovering slowly. Downstream operating rate is still expected to rise in April, but high prices may suppress downstream procurement enthusiasm, and spot discounts sustained. Overall, the aluminum prices stayed at highs due to growing expectations of US economic recovery and positive fundamentals, and may swing on a strong note. We need to pay attention to inventory accumulation and weaker-than-expected consumption due to sluggish consumption.