According to statistics from SMM, the total production of primary aluminium outside China in February (29 days) was 2365.6 kmt, maintaining a stable year-over-year production. As of the end of February, the cumulative production for 2024 reached 4898.9 kmt, marking a slight increase of 0.1% compared to the same period last year. Besides, the current capacity utilisation rate for primary aluminium outside China is 87.6%, experiencing a slight decline of 0.2% month-over-month but an increase of 1.1% year-over-year.
Regionally, production in South America reached 111.6 kmt in February, up by 3.7% year-over-year. The increase is primarily due to the restart process at Alcoa's Alumar smelter in Brazil. The smelter announced its restart in September 2021, with an annual production of approximately 238 kmt in 2023, and a capacity utilisation rate of about 53%. The restart of the Alumar smelter contributed to a 5% production increase for Alcoa in 2023. SMM assumed that the smelter will continue its restart process to further enhance its capacity utilisation rate in 2024.
In Russia, the production of primary aluminium stood at 326.1 kmt with a 2.2% increase year-over-year, attributed to the restart of UC Rusal's Taishet smelter. The smelter began its restart process in the first quarter of 2022 but albeit at a slow pace, with capacity utilisation recovering to about 37% by December 2023. SMM expects the facility to continue its ramp-up process in 2024, estimating production of 20 kmt in February.
In Europe, excluding Russia, primary aluminium production in February was 295 kmt. This represents a 2.2% decline year-over-year. The main factor behind this drop was the closure of the Neuss smelter in Germany, which announced its shutdown in March 2023. In 2022, the smelter's annual production was approximately 120 kmt.
Smelters in other regions operated with relative stability.
Looking ahead to the next month, primary aluminium production outside China is anticipated to remain steady. The estimated total production for March is 2524 kmt, marking a slight decrease of 0.1% year-over-year. Beyond the changes mentioned above, the New Madrid aluminium smelter in the United States announced its closure in January 2024. SMM expects its production to halt completely by March. The curtailment is projected to result in a 1.1% month-over-month decrease in capacity utilisation and a 1.7% year-over-year drop in production, bringing North America's production down to 330 kmt. Conversely, the Boyne Island smelter in Australia has shown a trend of steadily increasing production since 2022. SMM expects a 5% year-over-year increase in the smelter's capacity utilisation rate to 92% in March. As a result, the Oceanian production in March is expected to increase by 2.3% year-over-year, reaching 164 kmt.
(Note: The calculation for year-over-year production comparisons has been adjusted since the year 2024 is a leap year.)
Contact Allison for more details: allisonju@smm.cn
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