On Feb 29, 2024, SMM data showed that the social inventory of aluminium ingots in China’s eight major markets was 789,000 mt, (the amount for sale stood at 663,000 mt), up 41,000 mt from Feb 26, 83,000 mt WoW, and 298,000 mt from pre-CNY holiday level, accumulating further but remaining at the lowest compared to the same period of past seven years. In terms of inventory changes in the second week after CNY in the past six years, inventory growth of 83,000 mt or 11.8% was considered moderate. SMM believes that the digestion of stocks is expected to accelerate amid traditional peak season in March, dragging down domestic inventory growth. However, as risks still exist, SMM predicts that the inventories may move between 800,000-900,000 mt in the first half of March.
In terms of regions, due to the improvement in transportation in the second week after CNY, the inventory growth in east China and central China accelerated again. Inventory growth in Wuxi and Gongyi were close to 30,000 mt. It is worth noting that due to the recent re-opening of the import window, the inventory in the bonded area totalled 10,800 mt in the week, of which Shanghai bonded area reported at 7,000 mt, down 2,200 mt WoW, which has a certain impact on domestic social inventories. Inventories in Shanghai added nearly 10,000 mt. Inventory growth in south China reached 14,000 mt, and ingots in transit dropped by 5,000 mt. As local cargo arrivals slowed down, stocks in south China may grow at a slower pace or even drop.
