[SMM analysis] The market was sluggish after the CNY holiday, when will the price trend of rare earths improve?

The 2024 Chinese New Year holiday has ended, and rare earth factories also started operations. However, the price trend of rare earths has continued to be weak since the start of construction. The price of Pr-Nd oxide fell by 6% during the week, and the price of Pr-Nd alloy also fell by 4% during the week.

Before the Chinese New Year holiday, rare earth prices were generally low. Although there was a slight increase during the peak stocking period, the extent was limited. Under this situation, downstream metal factories and magnetic material factories were less willing to stock up on goods, and their raw material purchases were not high. After the nearly ten-day holiday, some metal companies' raw material inventories dropped to low levels. However, magnetic materials companies will start operations late after the CNY and are not expected to fully resume normal production until after the Lantern Festival. Therefore, the actual trading volume in the rare earth market fell short of expectations within the first week of the start of the operation, and rare earth prices continued to fall. This has resulted in most industry players taking a pessimistic view on the market outlook for rare earth prices, which will also a negative impact on the release of orders from magnetic materials companies. However, considering that downstream raw materials still need to be replenished after the holiday, SMM predicts that rare earth price trends may improve by the end of February.