Crude oil fell slightly, domestic metals rose, Shanghai nickel rose more than 4%, lithium carbonate rose 2.72%, alumina rose 2.08% [SMM Afternoon Review]

Metals market: As of midday close, base metals in the domestic market rose almost across the board. Shanghai nickel rose 4.1%, and Shanghai aluminum rose slightly. Shanghai tin fell 1.17%. Shanghai copper, Shanghai zinc and Shanghai lead all rose within 0.3%. The main alumina futures rose 2.08%. The main industrial silicon contract rose 0.6%. The main lithium carbonate futures contract rose 2.72%. The black series is mostly red, and the iron ore rose 0.89%. Thread and hot coil rose slightly, and stainless steel rose 1.34%. In terms of double coke, coking coal fell 0.31% and coke fell 0.21%. In terms of external metals, as of 11:42, LME metals were mixed. London zinc and London nickel rose slightly, London aluminum rose 0.45%, London lead, London tin, and London copper all fell slightly, and the decline was within 0.3%. In terms of precious metals, as of 11:42, COMEX gold rose 0.19%, and COMEX silver fell 0.04%. In terms of domestic precious metals, as of noon close, Shanghai gold fell 0.02%, and Shanghai silver fell 0.42%. Gold prices are set to post weekly gains, supported by a weaker dollar and safe-haven buying this week. Conflict in the Middle East has also boosted gold's safe-haven appeal. In addition, as of noon closing, the main futures of European line container shipping were reported at 2048 points, up 0.5%

Today, the spot price of Guangdong 1# electrolytic copper is 130 yuan/ton - 80 yuan/ton for the current month, and the average price discount is 105 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; Wet copper reported a discount of 250-230 yuan/ton, and the average price discount was 240 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong 1# electrolytic copper was 69,290 yuan/ton, up 365 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the average price of wet copper was 69,155 yuan/ton, up 365 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong's inventory has increased again after two consecutive declines, and the increase in arrivals is the main reason. Copper prices are rising, and the downstream wants to receive goods is declining, and the holders can only reduce the price to ship, but after the second period, the holders see that the premium in Shanghai is higher, and they are not willing to ship at a low price and start to ship at a high price, but the actual trading is not good. As of 11 o'clock, the contract of the month is 50 yuan/ton for copper, 100 yuan/ton for Pingshui copper, and 220 yuan/ton for wet copper. Overall, copper prices continue to rise, downstream cautious pick-up, the overall trading is poor, and it is necessary to pay attention to the outflow of warehouse receipts next week.

Macro dollar aspect: The dollar index fluctuated in a narrow range, as of 11:42, the dollar index was at 103.93, down 0.01%. U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly fell last week, suggesting that job growth is likely to remain solid in February. The U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims fell by 12,000 in the week ended Feb. 17 to 201,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis. Economists had forecast 218,000. In addition, the National Realtors Association (NAR) reported a 3.1% increase in existing home sales in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4 million units, the highest level since August last year. S&P Global also reported that the U.S. Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 51.4 in February from 52.0 in January. However, a drop in input price measures to a nearly three-and-a-half-year low may alleviate concerns about a rebound in price pressures. Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook said on Thursday that the risks to the economy have become "two-sided" as inflation eases and the labor market normalizes, but now is not the time to cut interest rates. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Fed policymakers should delay rate cuts for at least a few more months to see if the recent pickup in inflation signals stalled progress toward price stability or is just a bump in the road. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Harker said Thursday that the next step in monetary policy is to cut interest rates, but he declined to say when the Fed will be able to lower short-term borrowing costs. Harker said a rate cut in May is possible, but unlikely, and he predicts a rate cut to start in the second half of the year. According to the CME Fed Watch Tool, the market is currently pricing in a 64% chance of a rate cut in June.

Macro: Today, the UK Gfk consumer confidence index for February, Germany's seasonally adjusted GDP for Q4 revision, and Germany's IFO business climate index for February will be released. In addition, it is worth noting that Fed Governor Bowman spoke; Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook speaks; Fed Governor Waller speaks. Crude oil: Oil prices fell slightly on Friday, as of 11:42, U.S. oil fell 0.47%, and Brent oil fell 0.37%. Keeping interest rates higher for longer slows economic growth, which in turn dampens oil demand. Fed Governor Waller said on Thursday that Fed policymakers should delay rate cuts for at least a few more months to see if the recent pickup in inflation signals a halt in progress toward price stability or just a bump in the road. After Waller's remarks, benchmark oil prices gave up some of Thursday's gains.