China December Stainless steel Output and Forecast for January

SMM reports China's December 2023 stainless steel output at roughly 3.015 million mt, up 0.22% MoM and 4.40% YoY. By series: 200 series production was about 825,500 mt, down 9.68% MoM and 17.53% YoY; 300 series was around 1.602 million mt, up 10.60% MoM and 11.61% YoY; 400 series was about 587,500 mt, down 9.06% MoM but up 30.12% YoY. Indonesia's December output was about 410,000 mt, up 1.23% MoM and 46.43% YoY.

In December, as the year closed, stainless steel production at domestic mills varied. Equipment maintenance at some mills, especially for the 200 series, cut production by about 88,500 mt. Meanwhile, East China mills post-maintenance and year-end order boosts, particularly for the 300 series, raised production by 153,500 mt.

Short-term, ferrous sector rebound and winter stockpiling sentiment have warmed rebar and HRC demand, lifting prices. Some blast furnace process smelting steel mills have thus adjusted molten iron supply to stainless lines, mainly affecting 400 series production, with a national December output drop of 58,500 mt.

January's stainless steel spot market sales cycle may shorten due to the Spring Festival and weak demand, prompting production expectation adjustments by manufacturers. Estimated national stainless steel billet production for January is about 2.903 million mt, down 3.71% MoM. By series: 200 series is expected at 722,000 mt, down 12.54% MoM; 300 series at 1.547 million mt, down 3.43% MoM; and 400 series at 634,000 mt, up 7.91% MoM.