China’s inverter exports in October 2023 fell 20.4% MoM, shipments to Europe to remain sluggish in Q4

Per the General Administration of Customs, inverter exports in October 2023 were 3.1107 million units, down 28.7% YoY and 20.4% MoM. Conversely, imports hit 2.271 million units, up 0.7% YoY and 21.9% MoM. Cumulative exports from January to October 2023 rose 12.66% YoY.

In Guangdong, exports totaled 1.0303 million units, down 41.36% YoY and 25.18% QoQ, with key firms like Huawei, GROWATT, Shenzhen Sofarsolar, Kstar Science&Technology, and Hopewind Electric. Zhejiang exported 1.3527 million units, down 23.75% YoY and 22.02% QoQ, with businesses such as Ginlong Technologies, Ningbo Deye Technology, Hoymiles Power Electronics, Yuneng Technology, and SolaX Power. Jiangsu's exports reached 245,400 units, up 5.34% YoY but down 10.3% QoQ, with companies like GoodWe, Sineng Electric, and AISWEI. Anhui exported 49,300 units, down 62.19% YoY and 8.27% QoQ, with key players being Sungrow's domestic base and GoodWe's Guangde factory.

Major inverter companies saw a MoM export decrease due to October's smaller export base, winter-induced overseas installation slowdown, and severe overstock of residential energy storage and PV inverters in Europe. This limited shipments from companies selling small-scale commercial and residential models. As domestic installation peaked and demand surged, the proportion of domestic shipments increased, reducing overseas exports relatively.

In October 2023, inverters were exported to 184 countries. Europe received 539,800 units, 17.35% of total exports, down 43.86% MoM. Africa got 748,000 units, 24.05% of total exports, down 25.2% MoM. The top ten countries took in 1.2523 million inverters, 40.26% of total exports.

The top five export destinations were the US (284,100 units, down 17.21% MoM and 30.41% YoY), Tanzania (162,500 units, up 180.59% MoM and 96.24% YoY), the Netherlands (154,900 units, down 53.49% MoM and 80.69% YoY), Australia (112,600 units, up 50.54% MoM and 17.68% YoY), and Germany (101,900 units, down 54.26% MoM and 60.49% YoY)

In October, European markets, particularly the Netherlands and Germany, saw continued declines in monthly photovoltaic imports. This was due to high inventory levels from the first half of the year, which began being digested in Q3. By September, most centralized and commercial string PV inverter stocks were digested, with new shipments starting late September. However, residential PV and energy storage inverters still remain in surplus. These are expected to be digested by year-end, but the off-peak installation season and winter onset have manufacturers with high residential inventory under pressure, possibly prolonging the inventory issue into next year. Therefore, Q4 shipments in Europe are expected to continue being affected.

Among the top ten importers, emerging PV markets like Africa and Latin America, particularly Brazil, Tanzania, and Togo, saw high MoM growth. Australia also had a significant MoM import increase in October. As the Southern Hemisphere enters summer, Australia's rooftop PV power generation potential comes to the fore, supplying at least half of the country's electricity market demand. September to November is Australia's peak installation period, and the current significant component price drop, reducing installation costs, positively impacts Australian rooftop PV installations.