China Refined nickel output in October and forecast for November

In October 2023, national refined nickel production hit 24,000 mt, rising 8.9% MoM and a substantial 55.7% YoY, aligning with our expectations. This increase was primarily due to a surge in electrowinning nickel projects, especially in East and South China, where some smelters ramped up refined nickel output to full capacity. Despite October's continuous nickel price decline, most nickel plate producers showed no intent to cut output, mainly because nickel plates can be registered as deliverable goods.

November 2023's national refined nickel production is expected to remain steady at 24,000 mt, matching October's output. This is primarily because most newly-added capacity this year reached full production in October, with the rest set to come online in 2024, suggesting potential production increases may concentrate in 2024. Overall, the domestic electrowinning nickel release in H2 2023 aligns with expectations.