SMM lead market comment and forecast

SHANGHAI, Jul 11 (SMM) – Overnight, LME Lead opened at $2,055 per ton, stabilizing sideways during the Asian session; After entering the European period, it slightly declined to 2,045.5 US dollars/ton. Due to the shock of the U.S. Dollar Index, the London lead pressure released and rose to 2,070 US dollars/ton, and finally closed at 2,063 US dollars/ton, up 0.22%. Its holdings decreased by 613 to 124,000 compared to the previous trading day, and trading volume decreased by 3461 to 3,634.

Overnight, the main contract of SHF Lead 2308 was opened at 15,510 yuan/ton, hitting a low of 15,500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the session. Later, due to the upward trend of Lun Lead, it was lifted to 15,570 yuan/ton and finally closed at 15,560 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.58%. Its holdings decreased by 283 to 95,373 compared to the previous trading day, and trading volume decreased by 35,016 to 17,310.

Today's lead price forecast:

On a macro level, according to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, consumer prices remained unchanged year-on-year in June 2023, with a decrease of 0.2% month on month; Short term inflation expectations for US consumers have hit their lowest level in over two years, but Federal Reserve research remains "pessimistic". The internal hawk dove debate is still ongoing. At 23:00 Beijing time, follow a discussion organized by the New York Economic Club and chaired by the FOMC Permanent Voting Committee and New York Fed Chairman Williams. On a spot basis, the weekly operating rate of the SMM primary lead smelter in the three provinces was 56.25% last week, a decrease of 3.91 percentage points compared to the previous week; The operating rate of SMM renewable lead certified enterprises in the four provinces was 41.69%, a decrease of 2.39 percentage points compared to the previous week; The weekly comprehensive operating rate of SMM's five provinces' lead-acid battery enterprises is 63.63%, which is basically the same as the previous week. In July, the smelter will mainly resume production after maintenance, and it is expected that the supply pressure of lead ingots will be high in the middle and late stages; At present, the market's expectation of downstream consumption recovery has been extended to August, and lead ingot procurement by lead-acid battery production enterprises in July is still mainly based on rigid demand. Overall, with relatively stable macro conditions, short-term lead prices may maintain a range of fluctuations.