China's June Official Manufacturing PMI Contradicts Caixin PMI

According to market analysis, Chilean state-owned miner Codelco may have overstated its December 2025 copper production by around 20,000 mt after including material that may not have met finished product standards. Codelco previously reported December 2025 output of 172,300 mt, its highest monthly production level in nearly a decade and well above the January-November monthly average of around 105,600 mt. Following weaker production figures in January 2026 (91,000 mt) and March 2026 (110,900 mt), market attention has increasingly shifted toward the accuracy of the company’s previously reported production data and internal control processes.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $14,142/mt. Early in the session, the copper price center gradually shifted lower to $14,058/mt, then swung wildly upward to touch a high of $14,175/mt, before fluctuating downward to finally close at $14,083/mt, up 0.02%, with trading volume at 22,600 lots and open interest at 275,000 lots, an increase of 1,876 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls adding positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at and touched a low of 108,110 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward to probe 10,980 yuan/mt, followed by wild swings to finally close at 108,520 yuan/mt, up 0.38%, with trading volume at 45,000 lots and open interest at 201,000 lots, a decrease of 3,326 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing positions.