SMM Daily Aluminum Market Review And Forecast  

SHANGHAI, Jul 3 (SMM) –The most-traded SHFE 2308 aluminium contract opened at 17,970 yuan/mt at last Friday’s night session, with its low and high at 17,965 yuan/mt and 18,045 yuan/mt before closing at 18,030 yuan/mt. It rose 40 yuan/mt or 0.22%. LME aluminium opened at $2,161/mt last Friday, with its low and high at $2,134/mt and $2,179/mt respectively before closing at $2,156/mt, a drop of $5/mt or 0.23%. 

On the macro front, the U.S. Department of Labour showed that the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell unexpectedly, and the final U.S. first-quarter GDP data released on the same day indicated that the economy was still resilient. China’s manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly, but remained in the contraction territory, which strengthened market expectations for policy stimulus. In terms of fundamentals, aluminium production in Yunnan Province has resumed, but production in Shandong was reduced, leading to limited growth in operating capacity in June. Supply pressure will grow in late July. Given sluggish downstream consumption, aluminium ingot social inventories may build up slightly. It is expected that SHFE aluminium may fluctuate around 18,000 yuan/mt in the near future.