Russia May Sharply Increase Refined Nickel Exports to China If US Imposes Sanctions

SHANGHAI, Feb 23 (SMM) – The Three-month LME nickel opened at $24,405/mt on Tuesday and gained 2.29% to close at $25,055/mt. While the most traded SHFE nickel contract opened at 180,000 yuan/mt, with an intraday increase of merely 0.87%. If US actually imposes sanctions on Russia, the NORNICKAL nickel plate that were previously exported to US may flow into China. 

According to SMM data, the NORNICKEL nickel output stood stable at around 210,000 mt in recent years, and the output was reduced only in 2021. It plans to produce about 210,000 mt of refined nickel in 2022. China imported about 40,000 mt of refined nickel from Russia in 2021, accounting for about 20% of the total import volumes, and the proportion stood at 40% and 37% in 2020 and 2019 respectively.

The exports of NORNICKEL nickel from Russia to Europe in 2019 accounted for about 34% of the country’s total exports, and the proportion increased to 39% in 2020. While the exports to US accounted for 5-6% in 2019-2020. If the sanctions are imposed by US, the exports of NORNICKEL nickel to China will increase significantly.

SMM will keep tracking the global flow of refined nickel in Norway, Sumitomo, and Australia.